HEROIN ONSLAUGHT THEORY PREMATURE

Shortly following the events of 11 September, the media in the UK and US
reported unconfirmed rumours that the Taliban had lifted their ban on opium
poppy production as a show of support for Osama bin Laden. The conclusions
drawn from this was that the West would soon be flooded with cheap Afghan
heroin - including a new liquid heroin financed by Osama bin Laden, called
the 'Tears of Allah'.

Increased seizure rates on the Afghan-Iranian and Afghan-Tajik borders have
been cited as evidence that large shipments of opium and heroin were being
moved out of Afghanistan.

This assessment, however, is premature and is somewhat flawed, since it is
important to note that neither the Taliban nor al-Qaeda control the
majority of drug trafficking routes outside of Afghanistan. The Taliban's
involvement in drugs has revolved around taxing the illicit trade, while
Al-Qaeda has access to a small number of routes as a result of the
organisation's contacts with the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan and with
Chechen militants.

Much of the drugs trade from Afghanistan is controlled by Afghan traders
and other criminal networks who smuggle Afghan drugs further West. Because
of this reality, it is very unlikely that the Western market will be
flooded by cheap heroin.

Large confiscation rates in countries surrounding Afghanistan, coupled with
evidence that the price of heroin has fallen significantly in the region,
can be explained by the fact that following the events of 11 September
Afghan traders - expecting US reprisals - needed to move their stockpiles
for fear that they could be lost as a result of US military action. A low
profit margin is naturally preferred to complete destruction.

Thus, the primary interest for criminal networks involved in the drugs
trade of Afghanistan and Central Asia is to find alternative locations for
opium and heroin stockpiles. Given that there is little indication that
large shipments of illicit narcotics are leaving Central Asia, it appears
as though alternative locations have been found. It may subsequently be
ascertained that the price of heroin and opium will soon rise again.