CONFLICT CRIPPLES AFGHANISTAN'S LUCRATIVE DRUG MARKET

Opium Shortage

USHANBE, Tajikistan - In the muddy back alleys of Dushanbe's Green Market,
the most mafia-infested bazaar of this capital city, last year's hottest
selling item - opium - is suddenly in short supply.

''Not this week,'' said one reputed dealer, whose reed-thin face was wrapped
in a heavy red scarf. ''Maybe next, maybe next.''

The seven-week-old war in Afghanistan has upended the economics of the
lucrative drug market in central Asia. Law enforcement officials say nothing
has been harder hit than the opium and heroin flow through Tajikistan, a
major narcotics corridor to Moscow, Europe, and eventually the
neighborhoods, nightclubs and campuses of the United States. But the drug
trade could easily rebound unless dramatic steps are taken, UN officials
say, and they're looking to the US military to take the lead.

Sergiy Ratushnyy, head of the UN drug-control office here, said the US-led
coalition already has bombed opium warehouses and poppy fields in
Afghanistan, according to reports the UN has received.

''The attacks on Afghanistan have clearly slowed the movement of drugs so
far, and more could be done,'' Ratushnyy said. ''We know they're stockpiling
the drugs, we know where the fields are. I assume America knows these places
as well.''

Another UN official, who declined to be named, went even further: ''Opium
production is so lucrative for Afghanistan, it won't go away easily. If the
US chose, it could make a major strike against drug production in
Afghanistan.''

The United States for now has focused on military targets, but clearly even
these attacks have disrupted Afghanistan's most profitable industry: the
production and shipment of poppy-generated opium.

Since the war began, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, and other neighbors of
Afghanistan have tightened or even closed their borders, making it much
harder for dealers to move supplies.

But with the current chaos and absence of a central government in
Afghanistan, the drug trade is expected to grow.

''I don't think the Northern Alliance or any of the Afghan factors has any
intention of stopping the drug trade,'' said Ratushnyy. ''People are very
used to that income, and it's still much easier to plant poppy than anything
else.''

Opium and heroin exports from Afghanistan were earning about $3 billion
annually in recent years, until the Taliban banned poppy cultivation earlier
in 2001. Inspectors from the UN and other international agencies found that
this ban was holding in some provinces - but stockpiled opium took its place
along the drug cartel's modern-day Silk Route here.

Immediately after President Bush announced the war on terrorism, Ratushnyy
and law enforcement officials here say, raw opium shipping fell off some -
but heroin prices skyrocketed by 50 to 100 percent.

Since Nov. 1, officials in Tajikistan have seized 7,600 pounds of heroin and
7,180 pounds of raw opium. In November 2000, by contrast, 3,060 pounds of
heroin and 8,400 pounds of raw opium were seized.

This increase in heroin, and drop in raw opium, indicates that Afghanistan
suppliers are moving stockpiled drugs more than fresh material - a possible
fallout from the Taliban ban and the current war, law enforcement officials
say.

''In a country where nothing is produced, the drug money is the easiest,
fastest way to generate funds for this current military operation,'' said
the UN's Ratushnyy. ''It's just the same as the very, very clear connection
in recent years between terrorism and drug trafficking that funds it.''

On the streets of Dushanbe, where many adults seem to walk with a cigarette
in hand, the opium trade is openly resented. During Tajikistan's civil war
in the mid-1990s, the Tajik mafia put a large-scale drug trafficking
infrastructure in place, law enforcement officials said. Since the war ended
in 1997, heroin addiction has been a public health crisis.

To buy even a gram of heroin today, people here say, comes with a heavy
price.

''The police have become much more aggressive - even a small amount of
heroin can bring a jail sentence of 10 years, a death sentence you might
say,'' said Khousrov, a middle-aged man in a faded-blue business suit, who
declined to give his last name. ''And if you're suspicious, you'll be spied
on for a certain amount of time.''

Police Sergeant Saifiddin Saifuloev, gently swinging a foot-long black baton
as he walked his regular beat at Green Market this week, said Tajikistan has
become much more aggressive this year in slowing the drug trade.

''Because the US is here and the war is going on, it's much harder to move
opium around for these people,'' Saifuloev said. ''The government is much
more cautious now. Borders are much better.''

The UN's Ratushnyy said that while opium shipments have picked up recently -
as indicated by the rate of seizures - the prices have not fallen. He
worries that the drug business will remain so alluring that the future
Afghan government will tacitly support it unless given a new route.

''While Northern Alliance leaders have been very negative against drugs, who
can guarantee that their assistants and lieutenants aren't involved?''
Ratushnyy said. ''We need a very comprehensive, valuable program of
alternative development. We also need time. Changing a mentality doesn't
just happen with a war.''