WHY DO PRISONS GROW?

For The Answers, Ask The Governors

The U.S. has gone through a historically unparalleled expansion in its
prison population--from fewer than 400,000 in 1970 to almost 2.1 million in
2000. The expansion continued vigorously even as crime rates fell sharply
in recent years.

And it has happened at all levels--federal, state and local.

For explanations of the causes of the increase, it is helpful to examine
the state prisons, which account for 63 percent of all adult prisoners, and
the local jails, which account for another 32 percent. (The remainder are
held mostly in federal prisons.) Because state laws and policies affect the
number of prisoners in local jails, it is proper to consider the two types
of institutions together.

The map, which shows prisoners per 100,000 population, points up the uneven
distribution of prison populations, such as the fivefold disparity between
Texas and Vermont. You would expect that states with high prison
populations would have high crime rates, and indeed there is some
correlation between the two. But crime rates alone do not explain all the
differences among states.

Louisiana, for instance, had an incarceration rate 54 percent greater than
Mississippi's in 1999, yet Mississippi's crime rate was about the same as
or only moderately lower than Louisiana's.

Joseph Dillon Davey of Rowan University has attempted to explain such
differences in terms of gubernatorial policy.

In an analysis of 14 states, he finds that those in which governors pursue
"law and order" policies have higher incarceration rates.

An example is South Carolina, where Governor Carroll Campbell, a
Republican, presided over a 63 percent expansion of the state prison
population in his eight years in office (1987- 1995). Governor James G.
Martin of North Carolina, also a Republican, did not pursue a
tough-on-crime policy. During his administration (1985-1993), there was an
increase in the state prison population of only 25 percent, although North
Carolina's crime rate was much the same as South Carolina's.

Because Davey's study covers a limited period (the 1980s and early 1990s)
and a limited number of states, it cannot be taken as the last word on the
subject.

Nevertheless, it adds weight to the notion that tough-on-crime policies
were the most important factor behind the big increase in prison population
since 1970. This increase, which some say did little to deter crime,
profoundly disrupted minority communities. Based on current incarceration
rates, the Bureau of Justice Statistics estimates that 28 percent of black
and 16 percent of Hispanic men will enter a state or federal prison during
their lifetime. (The comparable figure for whites is 4 percent.)

Any effort to understand what happened over the past three decades would
benefit from an analysis of state policies and prison trends, the role of
local media and other factors that could influence imprisonment rates.

This type of study is needed if we are to find answers to such questions
as: How significant were tough-on-crime policies in causing the increase in
the prison population? To what extent were such policies promoted by those
states with a record of racial discrimination? And could the expansion have
been avoided without harm to the public?

Sidebar:

WHO IS IN THE STATE PRISONS? Men 94% Women 6% Whites 33% Blacks 46%
Hispanics 17% Violent offenders 48% Robber 14%
Murder/manslaughter 13% Assault 10% Rape/other sexual assault 9%
Other violent offenses 2% Property offenders 21% Burglary 10%
Larceny 4% Fraud 3% Motor vehicle theft 2% Other property
offenses 3% Drug offenders 21% Public-order offenders 10%