TEEN STATISTICS DON'T ADD UP

To The Packet:

Statistics cited by an ex-convict speaking to a school group on Hilton Head
Island (Nov. 17 Island Packet) don't ring true.

The total death rate from all causes for teens is 71 per 100,000 -- so it
is impossible that 7 per hundred could die from "drugs or some kind of gang
activity."

His statistic about the percentage of teens who wind up in prison is
similarly suspect. If 15 per hundred serve prison time at some point in
their lives, that would mean that more than 42 million people should be
incarcerated. The total U.S. prison population is estimated, however, at 6
million and only 3,915 teens are in state or federal prison, according to
the Bureau of Justice Statistics.

Research shows that programs like bringing inmates into schools are not
effective at cutting teen crime and that teens exposed to such programs are
actually more likely to offend than those who do not attend. Obvious
exaggerations like these may be one reason why.

Maia Szalavitz
New York City