RUSSIA'S ADDICTION PROBLEMS

These chilling words were spoken last year by Russian President Vladimir
Putin: "Year by year, we, the citizens of Russia, are getting fewer and
fewer. We face the threat of becoming a senile nation."

The population of Russia has dropped from 148 million in 1992 to 145
million in 2000. Were it not for the return of ethnic Russians from former
Soviet republics, Russian population losses would be even greater. So says
a Rand Corp. study titled "Dire Demographic Trends Cast a Shadow on
Russia's Future." These trends project a Russian population of less than
100 million by 2050.

But there is an even more alarming development that threatens Russia's
demographic future: Drugs, specifically cocaine, are being used by more and
more Russians each year. Close to 3 million Russians use drugs regularly.
In Kaliningrad, a city of 2 million, close to 30 percent of the population
are drug addicts, according to Russian statistics. In fact, Russia has
become the world's new drug trafficking center for the Colombia drug cartel.

Russia is developing into a major market for Colombian cocaine, according
to a leading Colombian newspaper, El Pais. The daily quotes an Interpol
source as saying, "In Russia, Colombian drug traffickers have been able to
secure total control of the market." What seems incredible is that a kilo
of cocaine in Moscow costs three times more than it does in New York City.
Narco-trafficking profits, divided between the Colombia drug lords and
Russian Mafiosi, have been estimated at $600 million annually.

Citing the Russian Embassy in Bogota as its source, El Pais reports that no
less than 40 tons of Colombian cocaine are shipped annually to ports of the
former Soviet Union. The article quotes a former Russian ambassador, Ednan
Agaev, as saying that "barely 5 percent of the cocaine entering our country
is discovered by the authorities."

As for Russia's grim population trends, the story gets worse with each
passing year. Deaths of working-age males, now double what they were in the
1960s, have contributed most to declining life expectancy. Male life
expectancy is now below that in Guatemala, Indonesia, Iraq, Mexico, Morocco
and the Philippines. The death rate for Russian working-age males is about
four times that for U.S. males of the same age group. For example, a
20-year-old Russian male has a 1-in-2 chance of reaching age 60, while an
American male has a 9-in-10 chance. Even more astounding is that Russian
male life expectancy is now 13 years less than that of Russian females
which, says the Rand study, is "one of the largest differences by sex in
the world." Even so, Russian female life expectancy is eight years lower
than that of American women. Julie DaVanzo and Clifford Grammich are joint
authors of the Rand publication.

The chief reasons for rising Russian mortality is alcohol consumption and
binge-drinking. Russian male deaths fell sharply, and male life expectancy
reached its highest levels ever between 1984 and 1987 during an
anti-alcohol campaign that:

* Reduced in-state alcohol production and raised state prices for liquor.

* Campaigned against the bootlegging of samogon, homemade vodka.

* Enforced compulsory treatment of alcoholism.

The anti-alcohol campaign, successful as it was, had one drawback: It was
exceedingly unpopular. So it was abandoned after which two phenomena
occurred: Alcohol consumption and mortality soared hand in hand among
Russian males.

A good deal of this disastrous state of affairs can be blamed on a failed
and failing Russian health care system, if it can even be called a system.
Funding has been declining since the 1960s. In the mid-1990s, the new
Russia was spending per capita 4 cents for every dollar that the United
States was spending on health care. And as a topper, says the Rand study,
many physicians earn less than bus drivers or baby-sitters.

Such findings spell disaster for a country with an aging population and a
decline in working-age males. These are matters of domestic concern. What
about Russia's position as a world power? Its huge landmass includes 12,000
miles of borders. Demographic trends will mean a serious drop in military
personnel and economic trends a drop in defense spending. In 1998, Russia
was spending, in real terms, 15 percent less per soldier than the USSR
spent in 1985, the Rand study finds. The study suggests an ominous
prospect, and that is, "Such pressures may force Russia to rely on weapons
of mass destruction, including nuclear weapons, for its security."