U.S. SUPPORTS COLOMBIAN ON ULTIMATUM TO REBELS

WASHINGTON -- The Bush administration today voiced support for President
Andres Pastrana's ultimatum to leftist rebels in Colombia, even as
officials and experts expressed misgivings that it could lead to further
violence and disrupt counternarcotics efforts.

Secretary of State Colin L. Powell laid blame on the Revolutionary Armed
Forces of Colombia, or FARC, for the collapse of peace talks after three
years and for Mr. Pastrana's order that rebels vacate a demilitarized area
within 48 hours.

"It is a serious situation, and I hope the FARC recognizes that it is its
failure to negotiate in seriousness that has caused this crisis to come
about," Secretary Powell said.

He and other officials held out a faint hope that rebel commanders might
take advantage of the two days they have been given to evacuate the zone,
to revive peace talks with significant new concessions.

"I hope there may still be found a way to move forward in whatever way
President Pastrana decides, but in an atmosphere that does not encourage
new and serious violence," Secretary Powell said.

Most Colombia experts conceded that it is likely that Mr. Pastrana will be
compelled to follow through on his threat and deploy troops in the
demilitarized area, which is the size of Switzerland. But they warned that
such a show of force could ultimately backfire if the Colombian armed
forces proved unable to establish control or if all-out civil war ensues.

"It's a gamble -- it's a high-risk situation," said Michael Shifter, a
senior analyst at the Inter-American Dialogue, a forum of hemisphere
leaders. "It's a question of whether the security forces and state are
capable of following through if the FARC doesn't budge."

Administration officials took pains to say Mr. Pastrana's decision to
curtail the peace effort on which he staked his presidency was his own. But
privately experts said Mr. Pastrana has been under considerable pressure --
including influence by the United States -- to take a tougher line against
the rebels.

Last summer, a senior State Department official, Marc Grossman, told Mr.
Pastrana of American concerns that the FARC was using the demilitarized
zone to train terrorists, hide kidnapping victims and raise money by
trafficking in drugs. Secretary Powell had been expected to convey a
similar message in a visit to Colombia but was forced to return to
Washington because of the Sept. 11 terrorist attack.

"There are a lot of people in the U.S. government who have been very
critical of this policy all along," said Bill Spencer, the deputy director
of the Washington Office on Latin America, a liberal policy group that
monitors human rights. "The only reason for hope is that this might serve
as a wake-up call -- rather than a death notice -- for the peace process
itself."

Administration officials have publicly backed the peace talks because they
have concluded that Colombia's security forces are incapable of victory
over the 17,000-member FARC. But they acknowledge that Mr. Pastrana has
nothing to show for the negotiations and say the rebels, who have increased
their numbers and wealth in the interim, have little incentive to make a deal.

"We've had this repeated sort of crisis with the FARC because the attempts
by President Pastrana to open up peace talks or open up discussions about
how to resolve this situation have really led nowhere," said Richard
Boucher, the State Department spokesman. "And in the meantime, the FARC has
continued to carry out its activities."

Mr. Pastrana's move comes within four months of presidential elections in
which he cannot run for re-election, and some experts wonder why he did not
leave a showdown with the FARC for his successor.

Max Manwaring, a professor of military strategy at the United States Army
War College in Carlisle, Pa., said Mr. Pastrana's hand had been forced by
the chiefs of Colombia's armed forces, who are troubled that they are
losing credibility and relative strength as the FARC thrives in its safe zone.

"It essentially is an internal Colombian military decision," Mr. Manwaring
said. "The military just doesn't feel that it can wait until the end of Mr.
Pastrana's term."

He warned that a military incursion into the demilitarized zone, if
mishandled, could result in a strategic or human rights "disaster" if
rebels held their ground or right-wing paramilitary forces and their
military allies turn their wrath on the 90,000 civilians living in the zone.

An all-out war could also undermine American efforts to eradicate drug
crops and dismantle Colombia-based smuggling networks.