DREYFUS ... VENTURA ... THOMPSON?

Could it be that Ed Thompson is even slyer than his older brother, the
ex-governor?

It's an intriguing question. Intriguing because there were lots of raised
eyebrows and incredulous groans when the 57-year-old mayor of Tomah
announced his candidacy for governor. Particularly since he's running not
as a Democrat or Republican, but as a Libertarian.

But now, a mere two months later, one gets the sense that his candidacy is
making some political big shots nervous.

Why? Well, for one thing, he seems to understand that there's a large
number of people out there who are thoroughly disgusted with how corrupt
Wisconsin politics have become. (A discovery I made while traveling the
state for a series on "the demise of democracy" last summer.)

Yes, Thompson - a shoot from the hip kind of guy - still strikes some
people as a buffoon. But lest we forget, political experts said the same
thing about third-party candidate Jesse Ventura during Minnesota's 1998
gubernatorial race. And we all know how that election turned out.

So what are the odds at this point that Thompson could actually get elected?

Jay Heck, executive director of Common Cause, says about 20-1. For Thompson
to get elected, two things would have to happen, he says. The state would
have to pass campaign finance reform legislation - a very real possibility,
he says - that would place a $2 million cap on what the Republican and
Democratic gubernatorial candidates could spend. (Minnesota has similar
limits.) That would ensure that Thompson won't be buried amid a blitz of TV
ads. Second, Thompson has to tap into the vast pool of people who normally
don't vote - "which was a huge factor for Ventura," Heck points out.

Another key, he says, is that Thompson must find a way - as Ventura did -
to make sure he's included in any televised debates.

"The biggest thing Thompson has going for him is name recognition," he
says. "My guess is there will be a lot of people who don't follow politics
closely who'll get into the (voting) booth and say, 'Oh sure, Thompson.
I've voted for him before. Might as well do it again.' "

Jeff Mayers, president of WisPolitics.com, an online news service, says
there's no question that Thompson's a legitimate contender, but puts the
odds of him winning at 100-1.

"He's legitimate in part because he's a Thompson and he's a character. So
he's going to get a lot of free publicity," Mayers says. "On top of that,
The Capital Times has, in fact, stated editorial-wise that it likes a lot
of his ideas."

And that's hardly surprising, he says, "because Ed comes across as a
straight-shooter. And I think if the electorate is uneasy about things -
scandals brewing and the economy not being good - he might appeal to a lot
of people." Even so, "it's hard to conjure up a scenario in which he wins,
a la Ventura," Mayers says. "But I think he's going to be a factor."

Gail Shea, a founder of the Wisconsin Democracy Campaign, isn't nearly as
impressed. "Right now he's about a 10,000-to-1 shot," she says with a chuckle.

And the reasons, she says, should be obvious to everyone. "He's really
riding the coattails of his brother's name recognition and popularity. And
without that, he wouldn't even be a blip on the horizon."

The only way Thompson could get elected, Shea maintains, "is if he captured
the imagination of mainstream voters and then convinced them that he could
actually bring about a program of change. And I think there's practically
zero chance that he could do that."

Yes, some are suggesting Thompson could be another Ventura, Shea says. "But
Jesse, I think, is a much more dynamic personality. He also had two very
weak candidates he was running against (Republican Norm Coleman and
Democrat Hubert Humphrey III). And that won't be the case in Wisconsin's
gubernatorial race."

Local political sage Bill Kraus agrees that Thompson's a long shot, but not
an off-the-charts long shot.

"Let's say 50 to 1."

At it turns out, Thompson and several of his advisers visited Kraus in
Madison recently and spent several hours picking his brain about a possible
campaign strategy. Kraus, who orchestrated Lee Dreyfus' shocking upset of
Democratic incumbent Gov. Marty Schreiber in 1978, gladly obliged.

"It was like talking to a sponge," Kraus says. "It was really wonderful
because here's somebody who doesn't know anything and he sits there and
sucks it all up. So he's a listener, and that's good."

Beyond that, "he's not dumb, but he's not very sophisticated either. He
talks in vague generalities. He has no idea how the money flows or how the
system works. He thinks that if you empty one building in Madison (the
Capitol), the deficit will go away. He's at that level - but he's smart
enough to catch up."

What would Thompson have to do to pull off an upset?

First, he can't try to replicate the Dreyfus campaign, Kraus says. "I told
him that's nostalgia, it's not reality. Why? Because, unfortunately, the
print press doesn't count anymore. So he can't do what we did." (That is,
travel around the state in an old bus, accompanied by reporters from major
papers who filed daily stories about the candidate's exploits.)

In fact, there's only one way Thompson could possibly prevail, Kraus says.
"By being daring and saying things that the other candidates are afraid to
say."

Such as? "Such as, Milwaukee's pulling the state down economically and
something must be done about it. Milwaukee's population is shrinking. It
has a desperate school situation. It's a segregated community. Milwaukee
needs several things, starting with a metropolitan government to squeeze
some dough out of the suburbs.

"He could also come out and say we've lost the war on drugs - which he
believes, by the way. He could take the stance that recreational drug use
is not criminal. He might even go crazy and go for legalization."

In addition, Kraus says, he could make a big deal of the fact both the
Republican and Democratic parties - but not Ed Thompson, a bona fide
outsider - are tainted by corporate money.

"Sad thing is, however, he's not well informed, he doesn't know how the
system works and he really hasn't thought through how to fix it," Kraus says.

"But if he does - and then figures a way to get that message out - I agree,
there's plenty of reason for people to revolt. They just haven't yet."