SKIRMISHING ON THE CARDS

China's Hard Road Ahead

ALTHOUGH China's latest anti-drugs campaign is primarily a response to the
surge in trafficking and the number of addicts, the broader aim is to
maintain social cohesion amid the changing economic scenario spawned by the
country's entry into the World Trade Organisation last year. Latest
official figures put the number of unemployed Chinese at 132 million, tens
of millions higher than what was previously stated. Officials expect
joblessness in the world's most populous nation to get worse in the near
term. As a direct consequence of WTO membership, many outdated state-run
industries face closure and competition from cheaper agricultural imports
is expected to dislocate millions of farmers. Although the country recorded
a 7.3 per cent growth in gross domestic product last year, there are
indications that the rate of expansion may be slowing.

In the final quarter of 2001, the growth rate is estimated to have fallen
below seven per cent. In the last 10 years more than 100 million people
have left the countryside to look for work in the cities, a phenomenon that
is expected to continue in the years ahead.

With Japan and the United States, China's major export markets, undergoing
a major slump, the country would find it difficult to achieve its target of
seven per cent growth until 2005. The communist leadership has realised the
imperative of controlling drug abuse before it exacerbates the serious Aids
crisis and further undermines worker productivity. The government is also
concerned with the threat posed by growing links among drug trafficking,
organised crime and official corruption. Police statistics show more than
30 per cent of robberies and burglaries are committed by drug addicts or
people associated with the drug trade.

The six-month campaign, which is to be launched by the National Narcotics
Control Commission later this month, will target places of entertainment in
an effort to check deviant or uncontrollable behaviour among addicts.

The public security minister recently said that nearly 80 per cent of the
drugs come from the Golden Triangle area, where Laos, Myanmar and Thailand
meet. This has prompted China to work closely with the three countries as
well as Vietnam, Cambodia, South Korea and Japan in terms of interdiction
and sharing intelligence. The 1839-42 Opium War with Britain - resulting
from the Chinese government's efforts to destroy stocks of the drug and
outlaw further trade - remains one of the painful moments of Chinese history.

Successive governments have been working to avoid creating ruptures in
society that could play into the hands of foreign interests. For the
government of President Jiang Zemin, which faces a crucial party congress
later this year that is expected to pave the way for a new generation of
leaders, the task of maintaining social cohesion and stability has acquired
added political urgency as well.