DRUGS IN THE ANDES

Spectres Stir in Peru

Lima - Partly because of Plan Colombia, Peru's illegal drug industry is
reviving. Meanwhile, Bolivians are protesting against drug eradication.

The harder you squeeze the illegal drug industry in one part of the Andean
region, the more it balloons out elsewhere. That has been the experience
over the past quarter-century of the United States' "war" against the
production of cocaine and, more recently, opium poppies in the Andes. Over
the past year, with much American help and money, Colombia's government has
stepped up the eradication of drug crops. So it is not surprising that
there are now clear signs of an increase in the production of coca (the
shrub from which cocaine is extracted) and poppies (the source of heroin)
in Peru.

These trends are worrying ones for the anti-drug warriors. On March 23rd
George Bush is to make a flying visit to Peru, partly to show support for
newly-restored democracy, but mainly to talk about fighting drugs and
terrorism, and boosting trade, with President Alejandro Toledo and the
leaders of other Andean countries.

This visit comes as the tide in Peru is turning in favour of the drug
traffickers once again. The country was the world's largest coca producer
until the mid-1990s, when production shifted to Colombia. This week, the
United States' government said that according to its estimates, Peru's coca
crop last year covered 34,000 hectares (84,000 acres), a similar figure to
that for 2000 despite the eradication of 6,000 hectares. But American
officials admit that their tracking system (derived from satellite imagery
and sample field checks) is poor at detecting young plants. By contrast,
Ricardo Vega Llona, Peru's "drug tsar", reckons there are at least 50,000
hectares of coca; the UN's preliminary estimate is only slightly less (it
put the figure at 44,000 hectares in 2000).

As troubling as the figures is the fact that there are plenty of economic
incentives for Peru's coca industry. The farm-gate price for coca leaves
has risen to an all-time high of around $3.50 per kilo, against 40 cents at
the low point in 1995. Coca is competitive against other crops at $1 per
kilo. On the other hand, the price of coffee, the most obvious coca
substitute for farmers on the tropical Andean slopes, has slumped to below
the cost of production.

The rise in the coca price may partly reflect an easing of repression. A
policy of shooting down suspicious planes in eastern Peru was halted last
year, after an American missionary and her baby were killed. (Peru wants to
restart this air interdiction, which relies on American spy planes;
American officials say they hope to announce a resumption during Mr Bush's
visit). The fall of President Alberto Fujimori's authoritarian regime in
2000 revealed a web of corruption, including claims that Vladimiro
Montesinos, his security adviser, took drug bribes. Since Mr Toledo took
office last July, he has been busy trying to rebuild democracy and the
economy, though Mr Vega Llona says traffickers are still being harried.

Gangs based in Peru are starting to produce more cocaine themselves, rather
than exporting semi-processed paste to Colombia. But Colombians seem to be
behind the introduction of the opium poppy; unlike coca, it is not
indigenous to Peru. Estimates of the crop are sketchy. But 135 hectares
were eradicated last year (up from 26 in 2000). Poppies are easier to grow,
more lucrative, and harder to detect than coca. They grow at higher
altitudes, above the operating ceiling of police helicopters.

To complicate matters, there are signs of a guerrilla revival in the drug
areas. "Security has loosened slowly but steadily since the last years of
the Fujimori regime," said Patrice Vandenberghe, the UN's anti-drug man in
Lima. Under Mr Fujimori, many drug areas were under military rule. But
facing budget cuts, and demoralised by allegations of corruption and
human-rights abuses, the army has pulled back, closing bases in these areas
(though the police are still present).

Officials deny reports that Colombia's FARC guerrillas have infiltrated
Peru, at least beyond the border area. But the tiny rump of Peru's Shining
Path guerrillas, a big force a decade ago but now numbering perhaps 300
(not all armed), is expanding into a vacuum left by the army. Field workers
have reported Shining Path incursions in the Monzon and Apurimac valleys:
guerrillas have lectured villagers, given them provisions and pressganged
youths. Without law and order, coca will thrive, but normal economic
activity will not.

The government is now taking steps to improve security. Fernando
Rospigliosi, the interior minister, says he is asking the army to restore
some of its bases (though not military rule). He is appointing new civilian
"peace commissioners" to co-ordinate anti-terrorism efforts with civic
bodies. And he plans to double the number of drug police based east of the
Andes.

But the government may find it hard to meet its target of eradicating 7,000
hectares of coca this year, without stirring violence. There are no police
in the Monzon valley, for example; they could enter only "with blood and
gunfire", says Mr Rospigliosi. Drug policy "can't be just repression, there
has to be a proposal in it for the people too," he says. Mr Vega Llona is
working on an overall plan, including alternative crops such as palm heart
or cotton, and the infrastructure needed to make them viable. Just
rebuilding Peru's jungle trunk roads would cost around $1 billion.

American officials have acknowledged that Plan Colombia will affect the
neighbours. The United States' Congress has tripled anti-drug aid for Peru
this year, to $156m, including $30m to upgrade police helicopters for opium
areas, and more than $80m for alternative development. Peruvian officials
stress that the drugs trade is bad for democracy, security, the environment
and health. "Drugs trafficking is not going to disappear as long as there
are users," says Mr Vega Llona. "But we're going to squeeze it." Maybe so,
but as always, this looks like an unequal fight.