WAVE OF AFGHANI HEROIN ABOUT TO BREAK OVER VANCOUVER

A potential catastrophe looms over Vancouver, but neither the municipal nor
the provincial government is prepared for it. Last fall's U.S.-produced
"regime change" in Afghanistan has reinvigorated that country's opium
industry. Vancouver, home to a sizable market for heroin, can soon expect a
wave of cheap, high-grade supply.

The last time there was a major shift in global heroin production, five
years ago, dead overdosed bodies began turning up all over Vancouver almost
daily. With virtually no change since then in how the city or the province
approach social problems related to drug abuse and addiction, the same grim
scenario awaits us-and this time the body count may be higher.

In early 2001, the Afghan Taliban allowed U.N. inspectors into the country
to examine the state of the opium farming industry. To the U.N. inspectors'
surprise, they found the Taliban really had achieved what they claimed: an
end to opium production, at least in those parts of the country under
government control.

This was no small feat. Opium industry observers believe that Afghanistan
produced between two-thirds and three-quarters of the world's supply prior
to the Taliban's crackdown. In a country devastated by 20 years of war,
there was virtually no industry, no farming, and no economy left. The
annual budget of the Taliban government, administering a country of over 20
million people, was less than the City of Vancouver's budget. Opium was
quite literally the only industry Afghanis had.

It was a testament to the genuine piety of the Taliban that they could not
abide making money off a destructive product, even if stopping it meant
nation-wide destitution. It also speaks to the Taliban's effectiveness as a
government in a country that is notoriously ungovernable. In addition to
halting opium production, the Taliban also put an end to highway banditry,
which, before the Taliban, made it impossible to move or distribute any
economic product-besides opium-around or through Afghanistan.

By November of last year heavy U.S. bombardment of the country scattered
the Taliban and opened the door to a Northern Alliance invasion and
occupation. As a result, highway banditry returned with such force that the
internal transportation industry has virtually ceased once again, and opium
production has re-started in earnest.

Local reports indicate Afghanistan's production of opium is already back to
pre-Taliban levels. Heroin refineries in Pakistan, Uzbekistan and
Tajikistan are steaming away at full production capacity. Supply chains
linking central Asia with European cities are reported to be up and
running. It will likely be only a matter of weeks before new
Afghan-produced heroin begins arriving in Vancouver.

The huge surge in global production of opium, brought on by the U.S.
removal of a regime that had effectively choked off two-thirds of the
world's supply, will mean dramatically reduced prices and a renewed
abundance of street heroin in Vancouver.

One of the recommendations made by the Vancouver-Richmond Health Board
following the last spate of heroin overdose deaths was for a
potency-monitoring service that could warn users if potency levels of
street-purchased heroin jumped up. Such a program could only work in
so-called "safe-injection sites" staffed by public health nurses and
doctors. None of these recommendations have been implemented.

The much-advertised Four Pillars approach to Vancouver's drug problem gave
as much weight to harm reduction and treatment services as it did to police
enforcement. But according to witnesses, only the enforcement pillar of the
plan is in evidence. As vastly cheaper heroin arrives by the boatload, the
drug will steal market share from other drugs, exacerbating the problem by
exposing new and inexperienced users to heroin at a time of unpredictably
fluctuating potencies.

There's time to head off this looming catastrophe. Law enforcement and
health treatment reforms should be speeded through before the bodies start
turning up.

We already know what to do to minimize the impact of the coming wave. Safe
injection sites with nurses and doctors present would be a good start. The
question is, are the city and provincial governments capable of fast action?