GOLDEN TRIANGLE TRIES A COMEBACK

The war on terrorism has handed the dictators in Burma a problem and an
opportunity. The Taliban-run drug trade in Afghanistan has been disrupted
by the US intervention and the installation of a new, civilised regime in
Kabul. Government forces in Colombia have made major inroads on new opium
fields in that country. This has restored Burma as the world's leading
source of illicit opium and heroin. The generals in Rangoon will show
clearly in the next few months whether their promises to fight drug
trafficking are real or lip service.

Nothing has altered the global traffic in heroin so much as the defeat of
the Taliban. But victory over terrorism in Afghanistan has not changed the
demand for drugs around the world. After a drop in demand and production
last year, gangs in Burma and Laos have rushed to fill the gap. The new
alliance between the United Wa State Army and the 14K triad has worked to
fill new orders. There have been marked increases lately in heroin seizures
in Thailand and China.

The danger is that the Golden Triangle will soon return to its prominence
of 30 years ago, as heroin producer for the world. The Burma-Laos-Thailand
border region was the undisputed leader in the traffic in opium and heroin.
A highly successful string of anti-opium programmes has wiped out
significant cultivation of opium in Thailand. The communist regime in Laos
dabbled briefly in drugs after its 1975 accession to power, but has since
stressed drug campaigns. Burma has long confused propaganda with action,
but opium harvests began to drop at the turn of the century, partly by
Rangoon action and partly because of drought.

As Burma production dropped, Afghanistan built its crop during the 1990s to
more than 3,000 tonnes of opium a year. The Taliban encouraged opium
production. The regime seized all harvests and aided trafficking in heroin.
In 2000, the regime banned opium growing, and production dropped to 185
tonnes in 2000. Last year, Burma regained its unenviable lead as the
world's top producer, with 68% of the global opium production.

But the Taliban lifted its ban on opium cultivation after one year.
Full-scale production had not resumed by the time the regime was ousted.
Sandro Calvani, Asian representative for the United Nations International
Drug Control Programme, believes Afghanistan will be a minor factor in the
global heroin traffic at least for the short term.

That puts a lot of pressure on Burma. One of the closest watchers of the
tense situation is Thirapat Santimetaneedol, deputy secretary of the Office
of the Narcotics Control Board. He believes as much as 3,000 tonnes of
opium is being harvested right now, triple last year's crop. Chinese police
seized more than 12 tonnes of heroin last year _ the result of refining 120
tonnes of opium _ and have already complained the Golden Triangle output is
at "alarming heights".

The generals in Rangoon have alternated statements about their drug policy.
On one hand, they have complained that lack of aid has made fighting drug
traffickers difficult. On the other, they have promised strong efforts to
wipe out drugs. And along the way, they directly encourage the
international fugitives Wei Hsueh-kang of the United Wa State Army, Lo
Hsing-han and Khun Sa.

As the home of the biggest regional methamphetamine trafficker and the top
world heroin peddlers, Burma has reached a crossroads. Within weeks,
everyone will know how much opium is in the hands of the Burmese
traffickers. Only the Rangoon regime can prevent a return to the
drug-driven ways of the old Golden Triangle. Heroin abuse by Thais and
others, the continuing spread of Aids and the ability of the three-nation
region to battle its worst security threat are at stake.