STAKES UP IN DRUG WAR

MEXICO CITY -- The weekend arrest of the most-wanted drug lord in both
Mexico and the United States is prompting fears of bloody turf wars along
the border as rivals try to muscle their way into the multibillion-dollar
business long controlled by the Tijuana cartel.

Heavily armed soldiers surprised Benjamin Arellano Felix overnight Saturday
at a posh home in Puebla, taking the alleged kingpin into custody without
firing a shot.

His capture and the confirmed death of his brother Ramon, the family's
enforcer, are expected to cripple the cartel and spark bloodshed among
rivals at major border crossings such as Tijuana-San Diego and Ciudad
Juarez-El Paso, Texas.

"Most analysts are worried there could be an increased level of violence
among the organizations that are trying to establish new routes and new
trafficking regions," said Ana Maria Salazar, a former official in the
Clinton White House and professor at the Autonomous Technological Institute
of Mexico.

Several months of violence are expected on both sides of the border until a
new dominant group emerges.

Law enforcement experts in Mexico and the United States expect Eduardo and
Javier Arellano Felix to make a bid to save the cartel that law enforcement
officials say was run by their brother. Gunning for their territory will be
Ismael Zampada, a rival drug lord whom Ramon Arellano Felix was reportedly
hunting when he was killed Feb. 10 in Mazatlan.

For the past decade, the Arellano Felix family has used violence to keep a
strong grip on drug smuggling into California and Arizona for distribution
across the United States. The Tijuana cartel may be responsible for moving
from one-third to 40 percent of the cocaine consumed in the United States,
the DEA has estimated.

The cartel is believed to be behind at least 300 killings in Mexico over
the past decade and was said to have bribed and threatened its way into the
highest corridors of power. Benjamin Arellano Felix reportedly approached
politicians and judges with a no-win choice: accept our money or be killed.

Given the cartel's high-level connections, the arrest of Benjamin Arellano
Felix could eventually shed light on some of Mexico's darkest secrets.

Mystery still shrouds the 1994 assassination of presidential candidate Luis
Donaldo Colosio, who was gunned down while campaigning in Tijuana, the
family's home turf. The cartel is believed to have been involved in the
1993 murder of Mexican Cardinal Juan Jesus Posadas Ocampo at the
Guadalajara airport.

"I imagine that there are a number of Mexican officials and former Mexican
officials who are probably having difficulty sleeping at night right now
because this guy has been arrested and [because of] what he knows," Salazar
said.