U.S. REPORTS MAJOR RISE IN COLOMBIAN DRUG OUTPUT

The Clinton administration launched a campaign yesterday for swift
congressional approval of its massive aid package for Colombia, issuing new
estimates that Colombian cultivation of coca, the raw material of cocaine,
has increased 140 percent over the past five years. Actual cocaine
production was estimated to be up by 126 percent over the same period.

A full schedule of hearings on the $1.6 billion, two-year package begins
today, when White House drug policy director Barry R. McCaffrey tells a
House subcommittee of the new statistics, compiled from CIA satellite
imagery and data collected on the ground. Administration officials said
last month that Colombian drug statistics had risen sharply, but declined
to provide figures.

"We have a drug emergency in Colombia," McCaffrey said yesterday. Support
for the administration's plan, he said, "is critical if we are to stop the
increased production in Colombia from outstripping gains made in the rest
of the region."

The new statistics also indicate a continuation in dramatic decreases in
coca cultivation and cocaine production over the past several years in
neighboring Peru and Bolivia, where the United States claims credit for
aiding government anti-drug programs. In visits to Washington last week,
however, senior officials from both countries complained bitterly that they
were largely left out of the funding request for Colombia and warned they
may not be able to continue supporting current anti-drug efforts.

To a great extent, the sharp increase in Colombian drug production is a
direct result of anti-drug success in Peru and Bolivia, as traffickers have
shifted operations over the border. But the exodus of coca production out
of Bolivia "can become reversible if we don't get the proper amount of
help," Bolivian Vice President Jorge Quiroga said last week.

Bolivia is scheduled to receive $48 million in drug-fighting funds this
year, with about the same amount budgeted for next year. Bolivia asked for
twice that amount for each of the next two years, saying it was running out
of money to compensate farmers who agree to substitute other crops for
coca. Although firm figures are not yet available, an administration
official said the new White House plan is likely to include an additional
$10 million to $12 million for Bolivia.

The fight to decrease production in Colombia is likely to be much harder
than in Peru and Bolivia, because heavily armed leftist guerrillas guard
cultivation areas and facilitate shipments by river and aircraft in
territory under their control.

Most of the administration proposal, nearly $1 billion of which is being
requested in an emergency supplemental appropriation this year, is for
intelligence support and military equipment. This includes 30 Black Hawk
helicopters to provide tactical mobility for three 1,000-man rapid
deployment forces in the Colombian army, which are being training by the
U.S. military.

The operational centerpiece of the plan is an effort to eliminate drug
cultivation and processing from two states in southern Colombia, Putamayo
and Caqueta, by seizing the area from the guerrillas, eradicating crops
with aerial fumigation and destroying drug laboratories. Peasant growers in
the area are to be assisted in switching to other crops once
guerrilla-occupied areas are secured by government forces.

In introducing its emergency package last month, the administration
emphasized bipartisan support for aiding Colombia. Republican leaders have
said they favor a massive aid program, although they have criticized the
White House for waiting so long and have claimed credit for forcing it to act.

But despite widespread agreement that action must be taken, approval of the
emergency package will not be painless, and its components may change along
the way. Some Republicans are gearing up to oppose the heavy emphasis in
funding and equipment for the Colombian military, saying more of the total
should go to the anti-drug forces of the Colombian National Police. Others
on both sides of the aisle have worried publicly that the United States is
heading toward another Vietnam-like quagmire with involvement in Colombia's
counterinsurgency war.

Human rights, religious and union groups have sharply criticized the
Colombian military's human rights performance and announced their
disapproval of the aid program. They have noted that it includes nothing to
combat right-wing paramilitary groups. These groups, they charge, are
allied with the military and are also heavily involved in drug trafficking,
even as they are held responsible for wide-ranging atrocities against
civilians.

But the administration is counting on a sense of urgency, bolstered by the
new statistics, to preserve most components of the package and move it to
quick approval.

According to the CIA figures, Colombian coca cultivation grew from nearly
126,000 acres in 1995 to more than 300,000 acres last year, with new
growing areas being developed more rapidly than massive fumigation efforts
could destroy existing fields. Estimated potential cocaine production
during the same period increased from 230 to 520 metric tons.

In Peru, cultivation decreased from 285,000 acres in 1995 to 96,000 acres
last year, with potential cocaine production dropping from 460 to 175
metric tons. Bolivia's 1995 cultivation similarly decreased from 120,000 to
54,000 acres, with production falling from 240 to 70 metric tons.