AFGHAN OPIUM PRODUCTION MAY RISE

WASHINGTON (AP) -- Afghanistan's dramatic drop in opium production could be
reversed as a result of the war on terrorism, U.S. and U.N. officials said
Wednesday.

The officials said they are concerned that the ruling Taliban militia will
end a ban that led to a 97 percent drop in Afghanistan's production of
opium, the raw material for heroin.

Afghanistan had been the world's leading producer of opium before the
Taliban, citing Islamic religious principles, banned it in July 2000. Opium
had been an important source of revenue for the Taliban as they fought an
opposition coalition in the northern part of the country.

With Afghanistan bracing for possible reprisals for the Sept. 11 attacks in
New York and Washington, the Taliban could lift the ban to raise cash, the
officials said. The United States has accused Afghanistan of harboring the
terrorists responsible for the attacks.

Neither U.S. officials, three of whom spoke on condition of anonymity, nor
U.N. officials said they have evidence that the ban has been lifted.

"After the 11th of September, our line of communication and information of
Afghanistan has been drastically reduced," said Pino Arlacchi, executive
director of the United Nations Office for Drug Control and Crime Prevention.

Opium production could rise in Afghanistan even if the Taliban do not lift
the ban. The chaos caused by U.S. attacks or gains by the opposition
alliance could allow farmers to shift back to opium.

"Hundreds of thousands of farmers are asking themselves what to plant this
year: wheat or opium," Arlacchi said. "If they plant now, they will get a
harvest around April or May next year. Will the Taliban be there April or
May next year?"

Arlacchi said opium is a good crop for bad times because it requires little
water and can be sold easily.

In 2000, Afghanistan produced about 4,000 tons of opium, accounting for
about 75 percent of the world market. Most of that heroin was sold in
Europe. Most heroin sold in the United States comes from Latin America.

In July 2000, the Taliban banned opium production, citing Islamic
principles. The State Department says 2001 production has fallen to 81
tons, including 76 tons in areas controlled by the opposition.

The drop in supply caused the wholesale price per kilogram to soar from $30
to as high as $700, according to U.N. officials. The ban earned rare praise
for a militia repeatedly denounced for links to

terrorists, suppression of women and destruction of relics of other religions.

U.S. and international officials have remained skeptical of the Taliban's
commitment to drug eradication. Some suspected the Taliban were trying to
cut supply to raise prices and control the market. They also said the
Taliban hadn't wiped out existing stockpiles, which the United Nations said
could total 100 tons.

This week, wholesale prices fell, according to U.N. figures, leading to
speculation that Afghan traffickers may already be selling their stock.

But Arlacchi said that doesn't mean the Taliban would be involved in the sales.

"Criminal groups, who are as powerful as the Taliban and as powerful as
anyone else in Afghanistan, have full control of those stockpiles," he said.

Before Sept. 11, the United States had planned to provide about $2 million
in aid for Afghan farmers to help compensate them for losses resulting from
opium eradication.

Additional aid was considered for farmers in areas controlled by the
opposition northern alliance. State Department and U.N. officials said
alliance leaders have agreed to help eradicate opium.

In March, the State Department said in its annual narcotics report that the
"northern alliance has taken no action of which we are aware against
cultivation and trafficking in its area."