THAI-MYANMAR WAR UNLIKELY AMID TENSIONS

BANGKOK: An ill-defined border in one of the world's most lucrative drugs
producing areas is at the heart of tensions between Thailand and Myanmar,
but recent skirmishes won't lead to war despite centuries of enmity.

An attack by masked men in jungle fatigues on a Thai school bus killing
three teenagers near the border this week has heightened emotions already
raw from a series of bloody clashes involving Thai and Myanmar troops last
month.

But the appearance of Myanmar patrol boats in disputed waters off southern
Thailand last week, and thousands of troops on both sides of the border, is
business as usual between the two uneasy neighbours, analysts say.

"These are 50 years and more of ups and downs in a volatile relationship,
regular small-scale incidents that always have the danger of expanding into
something more serious," said Robert Karniol, Asia-Pacific Editor of Jane's
Defence Weekly.

But a broader conflict was extremely unlikely, he added.

Thailand and Myanmar, formerly known as Burma, accuse each other of
supporting rival ethnic armies that produce much of the heroin sold on the
streets of the United States and Europe and vast quantities of illegal
stimulants.

Bangkok says the Yangon-allied United Wa State Army (UWSA) is largely
responsible for a growing drug addiction problem among Thai youngsters.

Myanmar's ruling generals, seeking to bring all the country's ethnic groups
into a single union, say Thailand is arming the anti-government Shan State
Army (SSA), successor to the notorious rebel army of former drugs baron
Khun Sa.

The UWSA and SSA are well armed and have their own agenda - to make money.

Diplomats and intelligence sources say military and police officers on both
sides are lining their pockets and have a vested interest in the status quo.