THE NEXT ATTACK

Graham Allison, the Charlotte native who's a Harvard international affairs
expert and former assistant secretary of Defense, gives America a grade of
C on its overall anti-terrorism efforts so far. He fears it may take one or
two more major terrorist attacks for the nation to do what's needed to
reach a sensible level of security.

Dr. Allison, speaking Friday to a Charlotte World Affairs Council luncheon,
likes the reorganization plan President Bush announced Thursday. So do we.
It is a start toward organizing the government so everyone knows who's in
charge of meeting the threat of domestic terrorism.

But Dr. Allison's conversations with friends and colleagues in the Bush
administration convince him they don't really believe some enemy of the
United States will detonate a nuclear weapon in this country. He does.

Why does he think so? He cites the Sherlock Holmes test: Is there anyone
who has the motive, means and opportunity to do so? To all three, he
answers yes.

Motive: Since Sept. 11, no one doubts that fanatical enemies of the United
States want to use whatever weapons are available to kill Americans. Many
of them say so.

Means: While making the kind of nuclear material needed for bombs may be
beyond the skills of terrorist groups, buying or stealing such material
isn't. Dr. Allison cites two recent efforts by terrorists to break into
Russian nuclear storage sites; both were repulsed. In the past decade, he
says, scores of individuals and groups have stolen weapons material from
Russian sites and have been caught trying to export it. Nor is it
unthinkable that a nation such as Iraq might give them nuclear material.
Saddam Hussein, if he develops nuclear weapons, would be unlikely to attack
the United States with them. But would he hesitate to give them to rogue
terrorists who are eager to mount such an attack?

Opportunity: Our borders are porous. Hardly any of the ship-borne cargo
coming into our country is checked. Trucks freely cross our borders with
minimal inspection. The amount of nuclear material required to make a bomb
is smaller than a football. Dr. Allison cited a colleague's observation
about the U.S. ineffectiveness in blocking unwanted imports: "If you want
to bring in a nuclear device, just wrap it in a bale of marijuana."

What must America do?

First, continue to take the war on terrorism to the terrorists, wherever
they are. The best place to combat terrorism it at its source, he said, and
that includes sleeper cells in this country.

Second, work with Russia to ensure that Russian and U.S. stores of nuclear,
biological and chemical weapons of mass destruction are held only in a few
sites that are much more secure.

Dr. Allison thinks President Bush missed an opportunity at the May summit
with Russian President Vladamir Putin to push for aggressive action to
secure Russian nuclear materials.

America, beset with so many security problems, may ignore the possibility
of a nuclear attack now. But what we know about al-Qaida suggests that
somewhere in the world are dedicated terrorists who are thinking of nothing
else.