BOLIVIAN'S CLOUT MAY HARM DRUG WAR

Coca growers' leader Evo Morales made a stunning leap to second place
Tuesday in the final count of Bolivia's June 30 presidential elections,
ensuring sufficient political clout to threaten U.S.-financed anti-drug
programs in one of the world's biggest coca-producing countries.

Morales, a hard-line socialist of indigenous descent who has vowed to fight
capitalism and close down the DEA offices in Bolivia if elected, won about
21 percent of the vote, and ended up less than two percentage points behind
former president Gonzalo Sanchez de Losada. Congress will have to choose
between the top two vote-getters by Aug. 4.

While most political analysts agree that Sanchez de Losada, a wealthy
businessman, will become president, they also agree that Morales' rise from
the fringes of Bolivia's political system to the leadership of the
second-largest bloc in Congress will alter Bolivia's politics. His position
will also deal a serious setback to the U.S. war on drugs in that country,
analysts say.

"The U.S. anti-drug policy in Bolivia is doomed," said Eduardo Gamarra, the
Bolivian-born director of Florida International University's Latin American
and Caribbean Center. "I don't see how Sanchez de Losada could possibly
continue with the policy of forced eradication of coca plants without
Morales bringing the country to a halt."

Morales, 42, leader of the Movement to Socialism, has led often violent
protests by Bolivia's coca growers against U.S.-backed eradication
programs. A descendant of Quechua and Aymara Indians, he was supported by
large numbers of Bolivia's indigenous people, who, despite making up about
70 percent of Bolivia's population, had little representation in the
country's political class.

At age 22, Morales became a union leader for the coca farmers in the
central region of Chapare. He was elected to Congress in 1997, but became
known for helping coca farmers organize blockades of highways. The farmers
demanded legalization of their crops.

Earlier this year, Morales was expelled from Congress, charged with
inciting violence. During the presidential campaign, he said he would close
down the DEA office in Bolivia, alleged that the U.S. Embassy was trying to
kill him, and asserted that capitalism is humanity's worst enemy.

In a telephone interview Tuesday, Morales told The Herald that he admires
Cuba's political system. "It is important for the Latin American people to
liberate themselves. Countries that liberate themselves, such as Cuba, are
a model for us," he said.

In recent days, Morales joked that he owed part of his good showing in the
polls to U.S. Ambassador Manuel Rocha, who three days before the vote said
that U.S. aid to Bolivia could be threatened if the country elected "those
who want Bolivia to once again become a major cocaine exporter." The
comment was criticized by Bolivian politicians as an interference in the
country's electoral process.

A State Department official in Washington, however, said earlier this week
that Rocha "forcefully defended U.S. policy and rebutted recent incendiary
comments by presidential candidate Evo Morales, regarding U.S. government
and DEA representation in Bolivia."

With neither Morales nor Sanchez de Losada expected to win a majority in
the congressional vote, the one with the most votes will be elected
president. Morales has hinted that he may take his case to the streets if
he loses that vote.

On Tuesday, he was quoted by the Bolivian daily El Diario as saying that
"the problems should be resolved peacefully, and if we're not listened to,
there will be new protests on the streets."

He rejected the idea of forming a coalition with Bolivia's traditional
parties, saying that he would not team up with those "who defend the banner
of neo-liberalism and kill our people to pursue U.S. government interests."

While most analysts agree that Morales is not committed to democracy, some
see a positive development in the fact that Bolivia's long-excluded Indians
will now have a major representation in the 157-seat Congress.