URIBE'S HOUR

BEHIND closed doors, with military aircraft patrolling the skies and
thousands of soldiers guarding the streets, Alvaro Uribe is due to be sworn
in as Colombia's president on Wednesday August 7th. It will be surprising
if the inauguration passes without a guerrilla attack somewhere in
Colombia. For Mr Uribe has a clear mandate to improve security, take the
fight to Colombia's rebel armies and reform the country's institutions. And
all the signs are that in taking on one of Latin America's toughest jobs,
he will plunge at once into some bruising political battles.

From Andres Pastrana, his Conservative predecessor, Mr Uribe inherits
failed negotiations with two armies of left-wing guerrilla groups, a
teetering economy with an unsustainable fiscal deficit, and still-unchecked
illegal-drugs production. All are linked, and will get Mr Uribe's attention.

But first he wants to change Colombia's political institutions, and
especially the corruption, vote-buying and cosseted excess of its
politicians. He wants a slimmed-down single-chamber Congress, stronger
parties, and an end to the scam which sees election-winners ceding their
seats to alternates who also qualify for generous salaries and pensions.
Immediately after taking office, Mr Uribe's interior minister, Fernando
Londono, is expected to send a bill to Congress calling for a referendum on
these proposals. For the president, the text of the referendum is
non-negotiable. He wants a new congressional election to follow a
successful vote.

The risk for Mr Uribe, an independent Liberal, is that this issue could tie
up Congress for months. He starts with a legislative majority, but it could
prove to be a fragile one. And Mr Londono is the most controversial member
of a cabinet otherwise stuffed with talent. He has powerful enemies from
his previous career as a well-known lawyer. His critics claim he acted
improperly in buying a large block of shares in an energy privatisation,
though he denies any wrongdoing.

Mr Uribe also wants a radical purge of the public administration, just as
he did when he was governor of Antioquia province in the mid-1990s; there,
he insisted on deep cuts in the state payroll. Now, several ministries and
government departments are to be merged or axed. With unemployment at
17.5%, those affected are unlikely to go quietly.

Spending cuts are needed both because the public finances are parlous and
because Mr Uribe is committed to a costly military build-up and more social
spending. Roberto Junguito, Mr Uribe's experienced choice as finance
minister, says next year's budget will be austere. He wants Congress to
approve tax increases worth some $800m a year. Wall Street analysts see a
pending pension reform as a test of Mr Uribe's ability to balance the
books. But the battle over political reform may diminish Congress's
appetite for this.

In the ten weeks since his election victory, Mr Uribe has carried out an
exhausting round of international visits. One aim has been to persuade the
IMF and other international lenders to treat Colombia's economy as a war
victim. Rudolf Hommes, a former finance minister and an adviser to Mr
Uribe, hopes for international money to help sacked government workers, for
example.

But Colombians will judge Mr Uribe mainly on his pledge to crack down on
the guerrillas. He has yet to spell out the details of his plan to create a
militia of 1m civilians to help the armed forces. Mr Londono has said the
government will seek constitutional amendments to allow martial law and
states of siege--a move that will be opposed by human-rights groups. Marta
Lucia Ramirez, a capable former trade minister who has been named as
defence minister, says she is thinking about calling up army reservists. Mr
Junguito wants to impose war bonds on the grumbling private sector.

Such measures would soften American critics who say that Colombia is
relying on foreigners to pay for its wars. Whether they will also force the
guerrillas to accept Mr Uribe's firm terms for new peace talks will decide
the fortunes of his presidency.