STATE PRISON POPULATION STATIC

County Jail Totals Warn Of Increase

The number of Americans confined in jails and prisons grew by 1.3 percent
last year to reach an unprecedented 1,330,980 inmates, while the total
behind bars in Massachusetts remained virtually unchanged, according to
state correction officials and figures released yesterday by the US Justice
Department.

But a closer look at the state numbers yielded little cause for optimism,
according to state officials, even though the number of people in
Massachusetts prisons and county jails actually dropped 0.1 percent in 2001.

As the state's prison population fell 3.1 percent - a figure that looked
like good news for a system that lost three lower-security prisons to
budget cuts this year and which is currently running 29 percent over
capacity - that drop was offset by a jump in the number of people being
held in county jails for lesser crimes.

Moreover, officials said, increases in county jail populations are usually
a harbinger of increases in prison populations, as first-time and low-level
offenders work up to more serious crime.

That likely increase, combined with a weakened economy and troubling
demographic trends, led correction officials to predict an overall increase
in inmate populations next year.

"With unemployment comes crime," state Department of Correction spokesman
Justin Latini said yesterday. "Populations are on the rise again."

The figures released by the Justice Department yesterday showed that the
total "US correctional population" - people who are in prison, in jail, on
parole, or on probation - reached a record high of 6.6 million, or one in
every 32 adults in the nation.

The federal statistics showed that one in every 107 American adults was
behind bars.

State statistics, meanwhile, show that the ratio was much better in
Massachusetts, where the total 2001 year-end population was 21,259 inmates,
meaning that only one in every 228 state residents was in a jail or in prison.

Pessimism among state officials, though, has been fueled by recent reports,
including a study of county jail populations scheduled to be released this
week. The report shows that more than 16,000 people were sent to jail last
year, a 5 percent increase over 2000 and the first increase in four years.

The rise was driven primarily by a 30 percent increase in the number of
people sent to jail from courts in Suffolk County, Latini said.

Of those sent to jail, 24 percent were convicted of crimes against people
(mostly assaults), 22 percent were convicted of property crimes, and 19
percent were convicted on drug charges.

Motor vehicle crimes, including drunken driving charges, accounted for
another 20 percent of those jailed. The remainder were sentenced for
sex-related and other crimes.

Officials believe the increases have been driven mostly by the weak economy
and an increase in the overall population of people between ages 19 and 29,
the group correction officials say is statistically most likely to commit
crime.

Latini said Massachusetts is one of 12 states where demographers are
predicting a steady increase in the 19-to-29-year-old population - and a
corresponding increase in crime - through the next decade.