U.S. AND ALLIES MUST INCREASE AID TO BALKANS, A PANEL ASSERTS

WASHINGTON, Dec. 8 - The Balkans remain a tinderbox for ethnic tensions and
criminality three years after war there ended under a hail of American
bombs, says a new report, which urges the United States, the European Union
and international aid groups to play more forceful roles in rebuilding the
region.

The report by the Council on Foreign Relations, to be released Monday,
concludes that high unemployment, criminal syndicates, government
corruption and continuing ethnic and religious tensions could make Bosnia,
Serbia - including its Kosovo Province - and Macedonia destructive,
destabilizing forces for all of southern Europe.

Without firmer supervision and more aid from Europe, the United States, the
World Bank and other aid agencies, the region will increasingly become a
major haven for drug traffickers, people smugglers and Islamic militants,
the report says. Without more rapid reconstruction, it adds, the region's
poverty levels will continue to rise, fueling mass migration into
surrounding countries.

"Neglecting these challenges will have severe and destabilizing
consequences for southeast Europe," the report concludes. "It would be an
especially serious blow to Europe, raising the specter of increased refugee
flows."

But the report also contends that the United States has an important stake
in rebuilding the Balkans because the region could become a major source of
illegal drugs and anti-American terrorism.

Beyond that, the report says that a failure to establish long-term
stability in the Balkans will feed criticism in Europe and throughout the
Muslim world that the United States is more interested in making war than
in keeping the peace. Critics contend that the United States should finish
rebuilding not only the Balkans but also Afghanistan before it embarks on
an invasion and a reconstruction program in Iraq.

The report was written by a 21-member task force led Edward C. Meyer, a
former Army chief of staff, and William L. Nash, a retired Army general who
commanded American troops in Bosnia.

The council's report recommends that Europe take the lead in rebuilding the
Balkans and aiding their assimilation, using the carrot of admission to the
European Union to encourage sweeping economic and political reforms that
could reduce corruption, attract foreign investments and nurture democracy.

The North American Treaty Organization must also expand its efforts to
restructure the region's militaries to help ensure that they are brought
under civilian control, the report says. Like the European Union, NATO can
use the enticement of affiliation to encourage reforms, the report contends.

The report also urges NATO to reaffirm its long-term commitment to
maintaining peacekeeping forces in the region. NATO now has about 50,000
troops there, down from more than 100,000 a few years ago.

But the task force also asserts that the United States must play a vital
role through its economic assistance and military presence. The task force
estimated that the United States would spend $8 billion to $12 billion on
military operations and $2 billion to $3.5 billion on assistance to the
Balkans between now and 2010.

The United States also provides about 8,000 troops to the NATO peacekeeping
operations, though senior Pentagon officials have expressed a desire to
decrease the number of American forces.

The report urges against reducing either troops or aid, saying the United
States sets the tone for other countries' policies toward the Balkans.

"The U.S. military is an essential deterrent to violence, and the United
States is able to deploy additional force quickly if needed," the report
contends. "The Task Force therefore believes that, for the next six to
eight years, an active U.S. presence in the region will remain necessary."