ASSESSING THE IMPACT OF THE CRUSADE AGAINST COCA CULTIVATION

The US is claiming the eradication of a third of Colombia's coca crop as a
major victory in the war on drugs. But are things really getting better?

How big is the decline? The United Nations office on drugs and crime
said... [that] on December 31 2002, there were 102,071 hectares [about
250,000 acres] of coca crop in Colombia compared with 144,807 [360,000] at
the end of 2001. The dramatic decrease comes on the heels of a massive
US-backed fumigation effort... Colombia exports 75% of the world's cocaine.

Rachel van Dongen in the Financial Times, March 18

How safe is the spraying? Eduardo Cifuentes, a Colombian people's
ombudsman, has accused the state of breaking the law by authorising an
increase in the concentration of glyphosates - a chemical which is used for
the aerial fumigation of illegal crops, and which in turn causes
irreparable damage to human health and the environment.

From El Espectador, Colombia, February 27

Any other bad news? In the coca-growing heartland of Colombia, the southern
province of Putumayo, there was a massive drop in registered drug
production. But sources on the ground said peasants are now cultivating
very small fields... too small to appear on the satellite imagery the US
based its report on. Another reason for the drop in cultivation may also be
due to the fact that the US market - the world's biggest - is experiencing
a rise in the popularity of synthetic drugs.

Jeremy McDermott at BBC News Online, March 18

What other effects has the global demand for drugs had on the Andean
nations? The illegal drug industry has cor rupted institutions, distorted
economies, wrecked forests, and financed armed groups such as Colombia's
Farc guerrillas... But the "drug war" has imposed its own costs. One is
known as the "balloon effect": local squeezes simply move the industry
elsewhere, spreading violence and corruption with it. Thus... drug
production is rising in Bolivia and Peru, and this year coca farmers there
have mounted challenges to governments.

From the Economist, March 8

What form have protests taken? Tens of thousands of... farmers, known as
cocaleros, have taken up arms... In the Chapare jungle, they have doggedly
replanted fields destroyed by anti-narcotics troops... The government has
been brought to the brink of collapse by a blockade of the nation's most
important highway... Last January, 11 people were killed in violent
confrontations.

Reed Lindsay in Scotland on Sunday, March 16

How has the Bolivian government responded? President Gonzalo Sanchez de
Lozada is studying a proposal to allow cultivation of coca in the Chapare
region of central Bolivia to help calm unrest... US officials staunchly
oppose the proposal to allow each grower... to plant one-fifth of an acre,
saying it would undermine the $1.3bn [?830m] effort to eradicate coca
plantations from the region.

Graham Gori for the Associated Press, February 22

What's happening in Peru? The prime minister, Luis Solari, has travelled to
the US for talks with John Walters, the US drug tsar, to discuss an
ambitious plan to reduce the cultivation of coca... At present, Peru
receives $78m [?50m] of international anti-drugs aid, of which $60m [?38m]
comes from the US. It's an improvement on previous years, but still a
minuscule amount in comparison with... Colombia... Peru does not have the
same problems as its neighbour, [but] alarm bells keep getting louder.
After an 11-day strike, a group of cocaleros agreed to a 20-day truce with
the government, but the deal... expires on March 23.

From Caretas, Peru, March 13

Is the US willing to expand its involvement in Colombia? The Bush
administration has made it clear that Colombia will have to shoulder more
of the military and financial burden of fighting its guerrilla war. US
officials have used the words "exit strategy" and "endgame"... to describe
Washington's desire to do less.

Scott Wilson in the Washington Post, March 9

Why does the US want to pull out? The threat... to US security is cocaine,
not the Farc. If Colombia's coca crops can be reduced to the point that
Colombia no longer is the US and the world's lead cocaine supplier, US
policymakers would proclaim success in Colombia and would reduce the US
presence... The Bush administration is [possibly] tired of the chronic
unwillingness of Colombia's ruling elites to make greater efforts to defeat
the rebels on their own.