ESCALATING DRUG WAR GRIPS MEXICO

President Calderon's Popularity Has Soared As He Takes On The
Increasingly Brutal Drug Cartels.

Mexico City - Faced with assassinations of top police officials,
death tolls at historic highs, and beheadings in the most innocuous
public spaces, Mexico's President Felipe CalderA3n sent an
unprecedented 30,000 troops and police across the country to tackle
drug-related violence after taking office in December.

But nearly six months later the terror has only gotten worse, as drug
cartels battle for smuggling routes into the US. Officials are now
even comparing the violence to the drug wars that plagued Colombia
for more than a decade.

More than 1,000 people have been killed this year alone in
drug-related violence, according to the Mexican newspaper El
Universal. Reporters have "disappeared," innocent bystanders have
died, the US has issued travel warnings, and locals whisper about the
worst violence they've ever seen.

Yet Mr. CalderA3n's popularity has also doubled, with two-thirds of
Mexicans now approving of his presidency. It is not necessarily
because they believe he is solving the problem of insecurity,
however. For most Mexicans, analysts say, taking bold action a€" even
if initially unsuccessful a€" is better than none at all.

"The worst feeling someone can have, when you see a problem, is no
one doing anything. At least CalderA3n is doing something," says
Jorge Chabat, a drug expert in Mexico City.

Yet many say CalderA3n's deployment of troops could risk sparking
more violence and wonder how long Mexicans will be patient before
there is a backlash.

A survey in March by the polling firm Parametria showed that 85
percent of those surveyed believe that government moves to control
drug-related violence will lead to more violence. And more people
have lost faith that authorities can control the situation a€" 50
percent in March, up from 44 percent in January of 2005.

"Every time I open the paper I feel fed up," says Carlos LA3pez, a
Mexico City resident who approved of the operations at first but now
says they will only worsen the situation. "It seems like the police
can't do anything about it."

Some politicians have even called for troops to be deployed to Mexico
City in the same fashion that some 30,000 have spread out around
MichoacA!n, Acapulco, and along the US-Mexican border.

Reality More Gruesome Than TV

Indeed, watching Mexico's newscasts these days is like tuning into
the latest installment of a grisly TV crime series.

There was the hospital in Tijuana that became the scene of a deadly
shootout last month, when gunmen burst through the emergency room
doors to free an accomplice injured in an earlier gun battle -
leaving two state officers dead and dozens of patients stunned.

Then a video on the website YouTube appeared, in which a man was
beheaded next to the message "Do something for your country, kill a
Zeta" - a reference to the hit men of the Gulf cartel, who
authorities say are fighting the Sinaloa cartel for lucrative drug
routes into the US.

And last week the stakes got even higher: the new director of the
national anti-drug intelligence force was shot dead in Mexico City,
followed by the deadliest gun battle in Calderon's offensive, which
left 22 people dead in a shootout in Sonora state, not far from the
Arizona border.

Jose Arturo Yanez, a drug expert at Mexico City's Professional Police
Training Institute, says that some 200 police officers have been
killed in the past 16 months - the highest number ever.

It is often unclear whether they are killed because of their
involvement in combating organized crime or because they are part of
it. Mexico has now become the second deadliest country for
journalists after Iraq, according to Reporters Without Borders.

Last year, 2,000 people were killed in drug-related violence. This
year the 1,000 mark came May 15 - two months earlier than the year
before and four months earlier than in 2005.

Calderon says his administration will not be cowed. At a press
conference last week, Secretary of Public Security Genaro Garcia Luna
told foreign journalists that drug traffickers are using terror to
achieve impunity, much like what happened in Colombia in the late
1980s, but that they will stay on the offensive.

"We are not going to take a step backward," he said.

Calderon has urged patience and tried to keep expectations low by
emphasizing that the war cannot be won easily or quickly.

After five soldiers were killed in a recent shootout, he reiterated
"Unfortunately, as we know, this is going to cost us resources, it is
going to take time to win this enormous battle, and I repeat, it is
going to cost human lives, but it is a battle that with decisive
support of the society we are going to win for the good of all Mexicans."

It is a strategic move, says Mr. Chabat, so that his administration
is not seen as weak - a problem that tainted outgoing President
Vicente Fox's administration. That is why his popularity has not gone
down as violence has flared, says Chabat.

"I would say that the fact that Calderon decided to launch these
massive operations with the Army and police forces sent a signal to
the Mexican and international public that somebody is in charge,"
says Chabat. "At least he is not going to be weak, or hesitant like
President Fox."

Troop Deployments Questioned

But some, like Mr. Yanez , dismiss the government line - that
violence will get worse as the government clamps down on deeply
rooted organized crime networks.

"The government says that the violence and executions are the result
of government pressure," he says. "[The drug gangs] act completely
autonomous of the government; the government does not affect their
operations nor their plans for business."

And the national Human Rights Commission recently condemned the
military for human rights abuse claims in Michoacan, Calderon's home
state and the starting point for the military anti-drug initiatives.

"I don't want the military here," says Elias Sheinberg, a Mexican
architect, reacting to calls for troops to be deployed to the
capital. "I fear the troops. It reminds me too much of war, and the
last thing I want is to be in war."

That is why many officials say that playing the role of a "wartime
president" alone can't solve the problem. Jose Maria Ramos, a
security expert at the research institute Colegio de la Frontera
Norte in Tijuana, says that preventive action is needed, especially for youths.

"We can jail suspected drug traffickers, but it's not going to reduce
the fundamental problem - the lack of opportunities or the changing
values of our youths," he says. "We can continue filling our prisons,
but the problem will still be there."