HAILING A VICTORY IN THE DRUGS WAR

First the good news. With eight days to go, the three-month government
campaign against illicit and dangerous drugs has accomplished a lot. It is
clear from numerous reports from experienced observers that illegal drugs
are no longer freely available on the nation's streets and in factories and
housing estates. Massive police attention has shut down many neighbourhood
drug rings. The rise in the price of drugs, particularly methamphetamines,
shows that the campaign has hit peddlers hard.

There is not much more good news. Police credibly believe they have shut
down one big ya ba trafficker in Bangkok, but have reneged on their
promises to track and arrest his suspected confederates high up in the
police force. An expose{AAC} in this newspaper's Perspective section on
Sunday showed that a variety of so-called recreational drugs are available
in the capital's nightclubs. Despite hundreds of murders and thousands of
arrests, the "drug culture" appears to have survived.

Most troubling of all, close allies of the dictatorship in Burma continue
to make, smuggle and sell millions of methamphetamine tablets. If police
seizures of the drug have risen -- and we must await official figures for
that -- so has the production of speed tablets by the United Wa State Army.
The government has made no public approach to Burma to help the drug
crackdown which began on Feb 1. Certainly the Rangoon regime, heavily
addicted to the money "invested" by drug lords, has made no public effort
to interrupt the manufacture or smuggling of methamphetamines.

Many would agree that it is a little early to declare victory in the drug
war and move on to the next problem. Instead of an anti-drug culture, the
government campaign has introduced an atmosphere of political fear.
Politicians and civil servants alike are rushing to jump on the victory
bandwagon being driven by Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra. Mr Thaksin has
announced the nation will be free of drugs on Dec 2. Interior Minister Wan
Muhamad Nor Matha says he will declare 25 of the 76 provinces drug free on
Aug 12.

The Office of the Narcotics Control Board last week said drug trafficking
is no longer a threat to national security. Secretary-General Teeraphat
Santimataneedol apparently believes the first 75 days of the crackdown
reduced the problem of drugs from the greatest threat to our nation to --
in his words -- a small-scale criminal problem. Surely that statement is
debatable, and certainly premature.

As far as is known, every major drug trafficker except one remains free,
and therefore in business. The police deserve high praise for arresting
Suparb Seedaeng, and seizing hundreds of millions in ill-gotten profits.
But other international and regional traffickers are still at large. When,
not if, vigilance eases against suspected traffickers so police can move to
the next wars _ on corruption and piracy, the government says _ the drug
dealers will emerge from under the rocks where they have hidden.

They will find, because they already know where to look, reliable supplies
from the Wa drug kingpins in Burma. And they will find a market. The
government has waged a heavy-handed -- some say brutal -- campaign against
drug suppliers. It has failed to match it with enlightened and widespread
campaigns across the whole country to educate young people against drug
abuse and help addicts to kick their habits and resume productive lives.

The government has taken heavy and deserved criticism for the violence
unleashed by the campaign against drugs. Still, it has made clear progress
in tracking and eliminating trafficking networks. What a shame it would be
if it simply declares victory and walks away now. The revival of the drug
trade is likely to be bigger and more of a threat.