EHRLICH'S DECISION TO VETO OR NOT COULD BE DEFINING MOMENT

With Choices On Final Bills Of Session, He Risks Wrath Of GOP Base,
Democrats; Interest Groups Ready To Pounce

Gov. Robert L. Ehrlich Jr. will take a major step toward defining his
governorship this week when he decides the fate of several much-debated
pieces of legislation approved by the General Assembly.

Whether he blocks or approves this final series of bills from the 2003
session - ranging from fiscal issues such as corporate tax increases to
social concerns such as the treatment of immigrants - could determine if
Ehrlich alienates his Republican base or angers Maryland's
majority-Democratic electorate.

Mixed messages - vetoing some bills while approving others - could make the
new Republican administration more difficult for supporters and critics to
characterize.

"I think it is unmistakable; you are going to see his decisions on some of
these bills are going to clearly help define where he stands on some
high-profile policy matters," said Paul E. Schurick, Ehrlich's
communications director.

The administration has been facing intense pressure from advocates on both
sides of each issue, forcing the governor and his staff to navigate through
delicate discussions on how to act.

The governor's staff has been toiling for weeks to craft veto messages it
hopes will place Ehrlich's decisions in the best possible light, capping
his first legislative session as chief executive.

High-profile bills awaiting the governor's blessing include a $135 million
corporate tax package and a proposal to remake the CareFirst BlueCross
BlueShield board of directors.

Ehrlich must also decide the fate of initiatives to give illegal immigrants
in-state tuition rates, to reduce penalties for the medical use of
marijuana and to allow local jurisdictions to use automated radar cameras
to catch speeding motorists.

The governor is expected to issue a batch of vetoes Wednesday and to sign
more bills into law Thursday, with interest groups from across the
political spectrum ready to pounce on the administration if the governor
goes against their wishes.

"He campaigned as a moderate. The Maryland voters thought they were getting
a moderate when they elected him, and based on which bills he signs and
which bills he vetoes, we are going to find out if he is really moderate,"
said Sean Dobson, deputy director of Progressive Maryland, which is urging
the governor to sign the tax and immigrant tuition bills.

Not to be outdone, conservatives say they will not give Ehrlich a free pass
if he disappoints them.

"We would certainly expect he would veto a tax rise of any kind, and that
includes the package that is in front of him," said Richard Falknor, vice
president of the Maryland Taxpayers Association. Falknor's group is also
urging the governor to veto the immigrant tuition bill.

But those divergent views could be just what the governor had hoped for.

Some suspect Ehrlich may use his final bill decisions to please social
conservatives and Republican business leaders on some issues, but move back
toward the center on others.

The strategy is often known as "triangulation" - a concept embraced by
President Bush and former President Bill Clinton - where a politician does
just enough to keep ardent supporters happy while going against them
sometimes to reach out to moderate voters.

Ehrlich could satisfy conservative Republicans by vetoing the corporate tax
bill - which will require further cuts to many government programs - and
the immigrant tuition bill, while at same time trying to appease moderates
by signing the medical marijuana proposal.

'Mixes Them Up'

"Instead of defining him more clearly, if he mixes them up, it could
actually make it more difficult to define him because some bills he would
seem conservative and on some bills he seems to be moderate," said Matthew
Crenson, a political science professor at the Johns Hopkins University.

Ehrlich and his top advisers deny that political strategy has any role in
his deliberations or the timing of his decisions.

"I just wanted a complete and full vetting before I make decisions on the
most controversial bills," Ehrlich said.

Shortly after the inauguration, Ehrlich laid out a moderate agenda that
caused many Democrats to grumble that he was looking and sounding like one
of them while they were convinced he was not. But since the demise of his
slots proposal, the governor's rhetoric has been more conservative, and he
has been aggressively reaching out to his Republican base.

Concrete actions such as signing or vetoing a major piece of legislation
should start shaping the true Ehrlich.

"That starts to define his administration," said House Speaker Michael E.
Busch, an Anne Arundel County Democrat. "The important thing for him to
remember is that the people who elected him were the moderate to
conservative Democrats in suburbia."

Top Democrats, who have been struggling to find an effective weapon to use
against the governor, are eagerly awaiting his decisions. They are
preparing to denounce Ehrlich for whichever of the high-profile bills he
vetoes.

"There's nothing moderate about the guy. He campaigned as a moderate
Democrat, and he's acting as an extremely conservative Republican," said
Montgomery County Executive Douglas M. Duncan, who fears the governor will
veto a bill letting his county impose a surcharge on driver's license fees
to pay for transportation projects.

The only measure that Ehrlich has outright promised to overturn is the tax
bill, which would temporarily increase the corporate income tax, create a
health maintenance organization premium tax and close so-called corporate
tax loopholes.

Democratic leaders say such a veto would prompt criticism that the governor
is protecting his wealthy campaign contributors while slashing programs
that help the poor.

"Bob Ehrlich raised $10 million to defeat Kathleen Kennedy Townsend, and it
didn't come from the little people," said Senate President Thomas V. Mike
Miller of Prince George's County.

Republicans counter that Ehrlich is trying his best to stick to his belief
that Marylanders already pay too much in taxes.

"He is trying to do what is best for the citizens of Maryland," said
Marilyn Dankner, president of the Maryland Federation of Republican Women.

The governor said that is the litmus test he will use in deciding what do
about the CareFirst measure.

The governor's decision on the CareFirst legislation will be closely
watched in Annapolis. The bill would replace board members and reaffirm the
company's status as a nonprofit corporation. But in recent days, Daniel J.
Altobello, chairman of the CareFirst board, has been urging a veto, arguing
that the legislation could jeopardize the company's ability to use the Blue
Cross and Blue Shield trademark in its name.

Democrats say they will be outraged if Ehrlich vetoes the measure. "Do you
protect the concerns of Marylanders or do you protect your fat-cat donor
base?" Miller asked.

On the issue of medical marijuana, the governor risks being accused of
succumbing to pressure from the White House if he does not sign that
measure. Ehrlich has repeatedly said he was inclined to support the
legislation - which establishes a maximum $100 fine for seriously ill
patients caught with the drug - but the Bush administration has been urging
him to veto it.

Feeling Some Heat

The governor is also feeling pressure from conservative Republicans - and
some African-American leaders - to derail plans to allow illegal immigrants
to receive in-state tuition rates at state colleges and universities. Some
Republicans are also upset about a proposal that creates a task force to
study whether it should be easier for undocumented immigrants to receive a
Maryland driver's license.

"Illegal immigrants should have to play by the rules," said Sen. Richard F.
Colburn, an Eastern Shore Republican. "I think the driver's license bill as
well as the immigrant tuition bill would just be bad policy."

But regardless of what the governor does this year, Colburn said, it will
be years before the public has a good grasp of Ehrlich's philosophy.

"You are going to have to wait two or three years to really judge Bob
Ehrlich as governor of Maryland," Colburn said. "You can't judge a CEO of a
$22.4 billion corporation in 130 days."