TIME TO LEAN ON THAILAND

Thailand's prime minister, Thaksin Shinawatra, calls on President Bush in
Washington tomorrow, a visit Thaksin has long sought.

There is much to discuss, some of it unpleasant. Two of Thaksin's policies
- strong support of the Burmese junta and individual assassinations by his
government in its war on drugs - are reprehensible and dangerous.

Thailand, a close friend, is undermining U.S. efforts to foster democracy
and the rule of law in an important region.

The government-sponsored violence last week in Burma and the detention of
opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi once again have made it painfully clear
that "constructive engagement" with the Burmese military government is not
an option for changing its ways. Military leaders are too deeply involved
in the economy to withdraw from power.

The military government -- in power for more than 40 years of continuing
decline -- has not met its pledge of more than a year ago to reconcile with
Suu Kyi. Rather, it seems intent, again, on isolating her and her colleagues.

Burma focuses on its neighbors.

Two of them in particular help keep the Burmese government going with
large-scale aid or other forms of assistance and support: China and
Thailand. China is not likely to end its support because of U.S. concern
about human rights and democracy in Burma. But the United States could have
an impact in Thailand.

Managing relations with its prickly Burmese neighbor has never been easy
for any Thai government. Since taking power in 2001, Thaksin has reversed a
policy of distancing his country from Burma and has actively pursued one of
conciliation, cooperation and public support for the widely ostracized
Burmese government. He and other senior Thai officials visit Burma
frequently. His government is apparently collaborating with the Burmese
military against armed Burmese ethnic rebel groups along the border.

Thailand is Burma's biggest export market, and the sizable unregistered and
often illegal trade across a porous border has become even more important
to Burma. Thai businesses are encouraged to invest in Burma. Vying for
further cooperation, Thailand has agreed to construct a two-lane bridge
across their border to boost trade and tourism, and has moved forward a
hydroelectric dam project on the Salween River. This is a project whose
environmental, social and political impact are uncertain but whose economic
benefits to the Burmese government are great.

Meanwhile, the Burmese government's lack of attention to HIV/AIDS helps
fuel Thailand's own HIV/AIDS problem, while Burma remains the principal
source of methamphetamines for Thailand.

Many Burmese pro-democracy activists, whose status in Thailand is unclear,
have become vulnerable to Thaksin's renewed crackdown on illegal
immigrants. Their activities -- often supported by U.S. government funds --
have been seriously constrained. Recent Thai policies include restricting
visas for Burmese passport holders, the arrest and threatened deportation
of Burmese dissidents and aggressive repatriation plans with the Burmese
government. Thaksin is scheduled to sign a memorandum of understanding at
the end of this month to repatriate illegal Burmese in Thailand to a
country where there is little employment, less welcome and much repression.

In Thailand, Thaksin began a new round in his campaign against drugs in
February and ordered police "to produce results at any cost." The goal was
to "eradicate all drugs in Thailand." This three-month campaign resulted in
2,275 deaths.

Official reporting only arouses skepticism: According to police records,
only 51 people were killed by Thai police.

The rest were reported to be the result of infighting among drug thugs.
Government investigation into these extrajudicial murders proceeds without
serious intent. The campaign has been extended through the end of the year
and broadened to encompass "dark influences," presumably Thailand's
organized crime and corrupt officials. The category of "dark influences" is
dangerously vague, and Thai officials have linked certain nongovernmental
organizations working on human rights and social issues with criminals and
drug gangs.

There is an irony here. Thaksin had a big electoral mandate and runs a
popular government with strong populist tendencies. The extrajudicial
policy of killing in the war on drugs retains popularity in Thailand
because of its supposed success.

But his government has been careful to control press coverage of the
campaign and quick to rebuff concerns voiced within its ranks and
internationally. The rule of law in Thailand is eroding.

Thailand has impressively transformed itself over the past 20 years.

While Thaksin himself has continuously expressed Thailand's independence
from supervision by international financial institutions and from foreign
influence in general, U.S.-Thailand relations remain strong. The two
countries have many common interests, including most recently increased
cooperation on terrorism. The United States no longer has the influence it
once had in Thailand, but what the United States says and does is still
important there.

A reversal of Thai policy is far more likely to help produce some change in
Burma than another American embargo measure.

One hopes President Bush will make clear to the prime minister the strong
U.S. opposition to his Burma policy and the extrajudicial murders he
condones in the war on drugs.

The writer, a senior fellow at the Century Foundation, was American
ambassador to Thailand from 1978 to 1981.