OFFICIALS DEFEND ISLE 'ICE' NUMBERS

Leaders Say The Data Should Not Diminish The Problem's Urgency

U.S. Attorney Ed Kubo said yesterday he stands behind the estimate that
30,000 people in Hawaii are "chronic users" of crystal methamphetamine as
"an accurate ballpark guesstimate" of the problem today.

In a Star-Bulletin story yesterday, University of Hawaii sociology professor
William Wood, cited as the source of that figure, denied he ever made such
an estimate.

He called "ridiculous'' estimates that 30,000 people in the state are
chronic "ice" users and another 90,000 are recreational users. Those
numbers, which would mean that one in 10 isle resident uses "ice," have been
used by Kubo and others seeking tougher state laws to combat the drug.

Key legislative leaders said yesterday that questionable figures on the
number of ice users do not diminish the urgency of the problem. However,
they also said accurate information is needed to develop a plan to fight the
drug problem.

A House-Senate Task Force on Ice and Drug Abatement and Lt. Gov. James
"Duke" Aiona Jr. are formulating separate legislative packages for next
session to tackle the ice problem.

Wood said it is difficult to estimate the number of ice users, but that it
has been a major problem for years and needs to be addressed.

Kubo and other law enforcement officers such as city Prosecutor Peter
Carlisle have used the figures in recent public hearings and before the
Legislature to get tougher wiretap and search laws.

"I want to focus attention on the 30,000 chronic users. They are the
problem," Kubo said yesterday. "It is a best guesstimate and by no means is
intended to be an accurate number."

Carlisle said: "The numbers are irrelevant. The key is that ice is a
mega-league problem, and anyone in law enforcement will tell you that. The
problem is very real and everyone knows it."

Aiona, commenting during a break in his "talk story" session in Hilo about
ice last night, said he doesn't know what the real numbers are. "The bottom
line is that we have a problem in the community and we need to address
that," he said.

Without firm numbers, he suggested the public consider the credibility of
people speaking. "Ed Kubo, I respect him very much," Aiona said. "I don't
think it's important for me to look and see if (certain numbers) are
accurate or inaccurate."

On Monday morning, Kubo quoted the 30,000 and 90,000 figures again to the
legislative task force. In an interview late Monday, Kubo said the source of
the 30,000 was a 1999 Star-Bulletin article that covered an ice presentation
at the Capitol. The article paraphrased Lt. Michael Moses, then with the
Narcotics/Vice Division, saying that "there are 30,000 hard-core
methamphetamine users here, and as many as three times that number are
categorized as recreational users."

Moses denies that he ever stated the figures, but he never asked the
Star-Bulletin for a correction. Moses did say that Wood "may" have been his
source for ice figures. Kubo said he heard Wood was the source.

At the time of the 1999 news conference, Wood had just completed a 1998
household survey of 5,050 people and estimated there were 8,100 ice users in
need of treatment. Wood said that number is a snapshot of 1998 but that no
similar household survey has been done since for a more recent number.

Yesterday, Kubo defended the 30,000 figure based on a different source of
information: state and federal law enforcement. The figure includes Hawaii
County Police Chief Lawrence Mahuna's estimate that the Big Island has
10,000 methamphetamine users, Kubo said.

Mahuna wasn't available for comment yesterday. But Lt. Marshall Kanehailua
of the department's vice section said the figure is reasonable. Vice
officers keep track of dealers, not users, he said. There are about 20
organizations on the island distributing ice, each with about 20 dealers,
Kanehailua said. If each dealer has 20 customers, and some have a lot more
than that, then the total numbers of Big Island users would be at least
8,000, he said.

But Kanehailua rejected the idea that there are large numbers of
"recreational," or casual, users of ice. "We wouldn't have an epidemic if
there were recreational users," he said. "There are no recreational users in
ice."

Sen. Colleen Hanabusa (D-Nanakuli-Makua), one of the chairpersons of the ice
task force, said the discrepancy in the numbers "doesn't take away from the
fact that we have a big ice problem."

But, she added, "When the U.S. attorney or the city prosecutor come before
us to testify, we have no reason to believe that their numbers are anything
but accurate. I can understand that it is difficult to estimate how many
users there are. But if that is the case, we should be told that."

Hanabusa invited Wood and others to meet with the task force to discuss the
numbers.

Senate President Robert Bunda (D, Kaena-Wahiawa-Pupukea) said the
legislative hearing process is needed to "ferret out the real number."

Bunda said: "We need officials to come forward and validate the number and
make sure that these numbers are not just embellished or just inflated for
the sake of getting issues off the ground.

"I'm saying we do have a major problem out there, but I'm not sure it's one
in 10. I can say in my district, it's a huge problem."

Gov. Linda Lingle declined to comment on whether she felt Kubo's figure was
accurate.

"I think it's important any time the government is giving the public
estimates, whether it's about homelessness or drug use or any other negative
social characteristic, that we try to be as accurate as we can," she said.
"I think you're unnecessarily upsetting the public if you overstate it."