AFGHAN UNREST THREATENING FUTURE

Attacks, Army's Weakness Delay Progress

WARDAK, Afghanistan - Two months after a gun attack, the bullet holes in
the Datsun sedan have been patched and it runs beautifully. But water
engineer Asil Kahn walks with a limp, and he still has two bullets in his
body, one of them half an inch from his spine.

The vehicle's humanitarian logo made Kahn a victim in the battle for
Afghanistan's future, where water engineers, mine-clearers and humanitarian
workers -- people the country needs most -- are prime targets for militants
trying to destabilize President Hamid Karzai's interim government.

The May attack on the Afghanistan Development Agency car in Wardak
province, south of Kabul on the road to Kandahar, injured Kahn and killed
the driver.

"They weren't robbers or thieves,'' said Kahn, 46. "They just wanted to
kill us. They're people against the government. They thought that maybe
there would be some foreigners or some officials from aid organizations in
the car. That's why they shot us.''

Building An Army

U.S. forces have their hands full trying to subdue attacks in Iraq. But
with the slow buildup of a national Afghan army, an inadequate U.S. and
coalition presence and poor reconstruction progress, Afghanistan is
spiraling out of control and risks becoming a ``narco-mafia'' state, some
humanitarian agencies warn.

Already the signs are there -- a boom in opium production, rampant banditry
and huge swaths of territory unsafe for Western aid workers. The central
government has almost no power over regional warlords who control roads and
extort money from truck drivers, choking commerce and trade.

If the country slips into anarchy, it risks becoming a haven for resurgent
Taliban and Al-Qaida fighters. And the point of U.S. military action here
could be lost -- a major setback in the war against terrorism.

Money spent on the war may end up being wasted, some say, and dragging the
country back from chaos could be even more costly. The United States spends
about $900 million a month on its forces stationed here, but little of the
$3 billion authorized for aid in the Freedom Support Act has been spent.

Reconstruction promise

U.S. promises of a ``Marshall Plan'' for Afghanistan -- a reference to U.S.
aid that rebuilt Europe after World War II -- raised Afghan expectations,
but security and reconstruction woes are undermining support for the
coalition among ordinary Afghans. Their disappointment and disillusionment
plays into the hands of anti-government militants.

Humanitarian agencies, calling for a big boost in international funds for
security and reconstruction, contend that the commitment to Afghanistan is
relatively low. A CARE International paper in January stated that postwar
international aid spent in Bosnia-Herzegovina was $326 per capita, compared
with $42 promised for Afghans up to 2006. For every peacekeeping soldier
there were 48 Bosnians, compared with one soldier for every 5,380 Afghans,
the paper said. Yet Bosnia poses no appreciable terrorist threat.

There are 8,500 U.S. military personnel leading the 11,500 anti-terrorist
coalition personnel in Afghanistan. An additional 5,000 foreign soldiers
secure the capital city, Kabul. A key missing piece is an Afghan army, but
with only 4,000 soldiers trained so far, it will take many years to reach
the planned 70,000-strong force. It won't be ready in time to ensure free
and fair elections scheduled for June. Some of the 4,000 trained soldiers
have already defected because of poor salaries and low morale.

The security vacuum outside Kabul has emboldened Taliban fighters, who make
up most of the anti-government militants, some who cross over from
Pakistan, others based in the east and south. U.S. officials say the
Taliban controls part of the opium business, a rich source of funds to
attract fighters.