MEXICAN WAVE OF DRUG CRIME SHOCKS NATION

Without the yuletide motif the unidentified corpse would have been
just another statistic. As it was, the extra detail earned him a brief
mention in the nightly news.

Every day, Mexicans are bombarded with the shocking details of a
territorial struggle between rival drug gangs, and their battle
against a military-led offensive launched six months ago by the
President, Felipe Calderon.

The newspaper El Universal claims the number of execution-style
murders for the year reached 1000 by May 15 - six weeks earlier than
they did last year, and more than three months earlier than the year
before that. By last Sunday the paper's count had reached 1263.

As the violence increases, observers are questioning whether the
military offensive can fulfil its objective of reimposing order in
large parts of the country blighted by organised crime.

"The risks are really high, both for the Calderon presidency and for
Mexico's institutions," said Bruce Bagley, a Miami University expert
on drug trafficking.

The crackdown began on December 11, 2006, with 7000 soldiers sent to
the central state of Michoacan, the site of some of last year's most
shocking violence, including an attack which led to five severed heads
rolling on a disco dancefloor. Now 25,000 soldiers and military-style
police are deployed nationally, but traffickers are not
intimidated.

This week, a threat to the public security chief in the eastern state
of Veracruz was delivered via a note beside a severed head, and two
police stations in the Pacific state of Guerrero were attacked with
grenades. Last week, two men were gunned down in a Mexico City funeral
parlour and two gift-wrapped grenades were left in the Metro.

About 69 per cent of Mexicans believe the term "war" aptly describes
what is going on, a poll released this month by the newspaper Reforma
found.

But is it winnable? "The army can no more control this situation than
the Americans and the British can control the situation in Iraq," says
Samuel Gonzalez, a former Mexican anti-drug chief and security
analyst. "The army can make its presence felt and perhaps limit ...
violence, but the structural causes remain."

Mexico's traffickers rose to supremacy after the demise of Colombia's
cartels in the 1990s. The cocaine is grown in the Andes but Mexicans
control 90 per cent of routes into the US market, according to US reports.

With repatriated profits estimated at $US8 billion ($9.5 billion) to
$US25 billion a year, outbreaks of turf violence are hardly
surprising. But, analysts say, they have never before reached today's
scale.

Most analysts link the surge in violence to the greater importance
attached to territorial control since Mexico became a market - and
transit point - for illegal drugs. Some say a near obsession with
catching kingpins in the past triggered internal power struggles and
encouraged territorial grabs by rivals in areas once dominated by the
imprisoned leaders.

The main battle today is between the Sinaloa cartel and the Gulf
Cartel, whose veteran leader, Osiel Cardenas, was extradited to the US
in January.

The drug analyst Luis Astorga associates the chaos with the collapse
of the one-party system in 2000, which had provided an orderly
framework for corruption and been powerful enough to limit the violence.

Mr Calderon is right, Mr Astorga says, to try to fill the authority
vacuum, but to rely so heavily on the army is potentially disastrous.
"We could have the Zetas phenomenon multiplied," Astorga says,
referring to the well-trained and ruthless hitmen of the Gulf cartel
formed from military deserters in the 1990s.

Many believe a better answer lies in a police overhaul and a
corruption crackdown. But that would require a degree of political
consensus improbable in Mexico.

Today, the President enjoys high approval ratings, but pollsters warn
these could ebb if the violence does not decline.

In the meantime, he finds himself trying to avoid comparisons with
Colombia in the 1990s when the drug lord Pablo Escobar put a price on
every police officer's head.

Guardian News & Media War on cartels

- -1263 execution-style murders so far this year.

- - 25,000 troops and federal police deployed across the
country.

- - 69 per cent of Mexicans believe the country is in the grip of a
"war".

- - Estimated $US24 billion earned from drug production and trafficking
in Mexico.