LEGALIZING POPPIES NOT AN OPTION: EXPERT

There Would Still Be Much Illegal 'Leakage,' He Says

Many have touted it as a simple and compelling solution to
Afghanistan's chronic poppy problem: legalize the world-leading opium
trade to take it out of the hands of criminals and terrorists.

The controversial Senlis Council, the federal Liberal Party, a major
Canadian foreign policy think tank, even a former Canadian NATO
ambassador have all advocated some form of legal and controlled opium
production. Doing so, they argue, would deprive drug dealers of
massive profits while easing the pain of the world's sick and putting
money into the pockets of poor Afghan farmers.

William says that's one big pipe dream. In terms of turning from
illicit to licit production, it just seems like a non-starter," said
Byrd, who until recently was the World Bank's senior economic adviser
in Kabul. "It is not feasible for the foreseeable future."

Byrd developed the World Bank's reconstruction strategy for
Afghanistan following the ouster of its Taliban rulers in late 2001.
He was responsible for the first economic report on Afghanistan in a
quarter century.

Byrd, who has a doctorate in economics from Harvard, has since become
the bank's senior advisor on poverty reduction in Washington. He took
part in a panel discussion in Ottawa yesterday on the economics of
the Afghanistan narcotics industry.

In a succinct presentation, aided by a few slides, Byrd
systematically and dispassionately attempted to debunk the
legalization argument. Byrd identified the Senlis Council in his main
slide on the issue, but he just as easily could have pointed a finger
at the opposition Liberals, the Canadian Defence and Foreign Affairs
Institute, or Gordon Smith, a distinguished retired public servant
who served as Canada's NATO ambassador at the end of the Cold War,
all of whom have endorsed some for of legalization of the Afghan poppy.

Byrd said India is already licensed to legally manufacture opium, but
it still suffers from a 30 per cent "leakage" of the drug into the
illicit criminal trade. And that comes in functioning, stable
democracy, he added.

"What kind of leakage rate would you see in Afghanistan? It's just
unimaginable. I'm just trying to point out the practical difficulties
in a country where you don't even have basic rule of law established," he said.

Afghanistan is the biggest producer of illicit opium in the world,
but it still uses less than 10 per cent of its fertile land, Byrd noted.

"You could have a full scale licensed production and you'll have just
as much unlicensed illicit drugs."

This week, the United Nation's Office of Drugs and Crime reported
that Afghanistan's illicit poppy crop has increased by 59 per cent,
and is now the source of 92 per cent of the world's heroin.

Meanwhile, poppy production in the Golden Triangle of Myanmar, Laos,
Vietnam and Thailand, the former world leader, has dropped by 80 per
cent in the last seven years.

Given that Afghanistan produces 90 per cent of the world's illicit
opium, Byrd said its entry into the legal opium market would affect
the four main countries already licensed to produce the drug for
medicinal purposes: India, France, Australia and Turkey.

Those countries would have to reduce their legal production, but
there's no sign of that happening soon, he said.

Moreover, the Afghan government opposes legalizing opium production
or mass eradication efforts, he said.