THE WAR ON YAA-BAA

Thailand claims to have struck its ruinous methamphetamine trade a severe
blow but cannot explain the deaths of 2,500 people in the process, writes
John Aglionby

It is hard not to applaud the Thai prime minister, Thaksin Shinawatra, for
his sheer chutzpah. At an extremely carefully spun ceremony yesterday in
front of 10,000 cheering people (most of whom were government officials),
the telecoms tycoon-turned-politician declared victory in his 10-month war
to rid the country of methamphetamine, the drug commonly known as speed, or
in Thailand yaa-baa (crazy drug).

As a shower of confetti swirled around him and with a large portrait of the
deeply revered King Bhumibol Adulyadej behind him, the ebullient premier
praised the nation for its efforts in bringing the problem under control,
if not quite eliminating the easily produced pills from society as he had
initially promised.

"Today is a milestone," he said. "More than 90% of ordinary Thais can now
lead an honest daily life free from narcotics in their communities. The
threat of drugs will not endanger the young generation any more."

Similar ceremonies were held across the nation as provincial governors
joined the bandwagon.

Mr Thaksin's government had plenty of statistics to substantiate the
leader's claim. Some 90,000 drug suspects were arrested, including 756
producers/importers and 2,750 big retailers; 40m methamphetamine pills were
seized; 1.7bn baht (=a326m) of assets were confiscated and the number of
drug cases that reached the courts fell from 14,000 in January-November
last year to 6,920 this year.

There are 82,200 villages that are now reportedly drug-free, 327,000 drug
addicts have undergone rehabilitation and more than 52,000 suspected drug
dealers and producers have been arrested. The price of yaa-baa has also
soared, in some places by more than seven times, as scarcity has made the
pills harder to find. But such statistics tell only a fraction of the
complete story.

The police said 25 officers were killed during the operation while security
officials killed 192 drug suspects. But spokesmen had little to say on the
more than 2,500 people who were killed in extremely mysterious
circumstances. The government claims almost all were victims of inter-gang
conflicts. Human rights activists, witnesses and victims' relatives believe
many were gunned down by extra-judicial police hit squads as officials
sought to meet targets.

Lending weight to the latter argument is the fact that not one person has
been prosecuted for any of the deaths - something else the police find
difficult to explain.

No data exists on the number of corrupt senior officials and politicians
arrested - it is commonly accepted that the drug dealers would never be
able to operate without their connivance and usually active assistance -
but observers find it hard to come up with even one name.

The nation's human rights commission has received hundreds of complaints
about police brutality during the campaign but commissioners say they have
repeatedly come up against brick wall after brick wall whenever they have
tried to investigate.

There is also virtually no evidence that the main source of supply -
factories just over the extremely porous border with Burma, in an area that
can reportedly produce 700m-800m pills a year - has been shut down with any
permanence.

Sinsamut Prada, the head of a drug rehabilitation centre in Bangkok's
notorious Klung Toey slum, says the picture in his area is indicative of
the national scenario. Hundreds of dealers and users have been forced to
find other markets or income sources while others have merely taken an
"enforced holiday".

``The current situation seems calm, but it is like a sleeping person who is
about to wake up," he said. "We believe police and officials will let up
after the government's victory declaration."

The UN is equally sceptical. "It has been a success if you talk about less
availability," said Yngve Danling of the UN Office on Drugs and Crime in
Bangkok.

"On the other hand, I'm doubtful that Thailand has been able to reduce the
demand. So the question is how sustainable will this be? It needs very
strong follow up, not just action that lasts for a year."

Mr Thaksin insists the pressure on the dealers will remain but with so many
other wars having been declared - poverty and dark influence are the
current priorities - and resources limited, there is an air of
inevitability that the victory will be short-lived.

But with Mr Thaksin riding high in the polls for his no-holds barred
approach, most analysts believe that, save for a disaster, there will be
sufficient momentum to carry him into the next election and beyond.