YEAR-OLD GOVERNMENT ON ROCKS

Ecuadorean President Lucio Gutierrez Is Largely Considered Inept And Has
Seen His Popularity Sink Since Being Accused Of Accepting Drug Money

QUITO - Allegations last month that President Lucio Gutierrez' electoral
campaign received $30,000 from a suspected drug trafficker has shaken a
year-old government already mired in complaints of political ineptitude.

Gutierrez was viewed as an astute politician before taking office in
January, a man would hop out of his car to deliver rousing populist speeches
during the electoral campaign and then hop back in to discuss economic
policy with reporters.

''We really thought that it was a campaign of change,'' said Lurdes Tiban, a
leader in the National Federation of Indigenous Nationalities, or CONAIE,
whose political arm, Pachakutik, formed an alliance with Gutierrez.

A former army colonel, Gutierrez was part of a short-lived ruling junta when
he, indigenous groups and other military members toppled then President
Jamil Mahuad Jan. 21, 2000 in the wake of a severe economic crisis.

A FALLING OUT

But Gutierrez broke with Pachakutik when the group refused to support
civil-service reforms, and its members in the cabinet resigned. Now,
indigenous leaders plus some of Gutierrez' own former supporters have
publicly called for his resignation.

''Those of us who risked our lives Jan. 21 feel betrayed,'' said coup
participant Guillermo Rosero. He lost his job as president of the
government-run Petroecuador for opposing Gutierrez' plan to bring more
private investment into the country's oil industry.

The harshest blow came when the Quito newspaper El Comercio reported in
November that an unnamed source had claimed that the president's Patriotic
Society Party accepted $30,000 in campaign contributions in 2002 from Cesar
Fernandez, a politician and businessman arrested in October on drug
trafficking charges.

CALLED A CONSPIRACY

The president has blamed the media and unnamed detractors for promoting a
conspiracy to push him out of office. He demanded that El Comercio reveal
its source and then threatened to take the paper to court when it refused.

Although still unproven, the allegations shook a government elected largely
on Gutierrez' campaign promise to fight corruption.

Under Ecuadorian law the president can be removed from office for accepting
drug-tainted campaign money -- even if he's unaware of its origin. As a
result, the scandal has awakened pessimistic speculation on just how long he
can remain in power.

''Unfortunately, I don't see how such a weak government can sustain itself
in the long run,'' said Augusto Barrera, a Pachakutik advisor who served as
secretary of dialogue and planning. ``Changing presidents is not good for
the country, but neither is three years without a clear agenda.''

Gutierrez' administration has also been accused of nepotism, cronyism and
inefficiency. He has replaced more than half of his Cabinet members in less
than a year, and his popularity has dropped in the latest polls from about
50 percent in January to 16 percent now.

And although Gutierrez says he only believes in surveys ''of flesh and
blood,'' soccer fans booed him recently at a game.

The president did not attend the bullfights held in early December in Quito,
a well-known and harsh barometer of middle and upper-class opinion in the
capital city.

POLITICAL ALLIES

Gutierrez is not down for the count. One of the country's most-powerful
political parties, the free-market Social Christian Party, quelled an
attempt by one of its members to look deeper into the Fernandez case in
Congress and has supported some of Gutierrez' legislative proposals. It will
probably continue to prop him up as long as it serves the members' own
interests -- largely economic.

The president also has economics on his side for now, with high oil prices
helping to keep fiscal accounts under control and a weaker dollar --
Ecuador's official currency since 2000 -- pushing up exports.

Indigenous groups say they are preparing massive protests for January,
however, leaving many Ecuadorians to wonder which is worse: a president
thrown out legally, toppled by a coup or hobbled by political crisis.

''Without any type of conspiracy, the government is eroding on its own due
to an inadequate handling of politics,'' said Adrian Bonilla, a Quito
professor and political analyst. ``The government could have been much more
efficient and less vulnerable if it had managed Ecuadorian politics
better.''

CARLA D'NAN BASS, Special to The Herald