NEW INMATE PROJECTIONS INDICATE STEADY RISE IN PRISON POPULATION

RALEIGH -- North Carolina is building three prisons and has approved
financing for three more. That may not be enough to keep up with the parade
of new prisoners.

The latest projections on the number of inmates indicate that the state
will have to build several more prisons if legislators don't choose other
options to reduce the need for cells.

The North Carolina Sentencing and Policy Advisory Commission's latest
estimate last week indicates that the state will have 44,094 inmates behind
bars by 2013, but will have only enough capacity for 37,743.

Such overcrowding could lead to federal intervention, as happened in the
1980s when the state had a similar overcrowding problem.

The new estimates show a continued rise in the prison population.

Last year, the commission raised its estimates because convictions for
murder, robberies and drug trafficking increased by about 20 percent. The
commission took the same tack this year because of a 19 percent jump in
habitual-felon convictions - the so-called three-strikes penalty - and
about a 5 percent jump in drug-trafficking convictions.

Even when the third of the three prisons approved this year opens in 2008,
the state will be nearly 2,000 beds short if no other measures are taken.
That's the size of two, typical 1,000-bed maximum-security prisons, which
cost the state about $80 million to build and $17 million a year to operate.

"We're predicting again this year a shortage, and it's not going to go
away, even with the prisons we're building," said Susan Katzenelson, the
executive director of the commission.

Next year, state legislators are expected to consider tougher penalties to
combat domestic violence and a rising number of methamphetamine operations.
But tougher penalties often lead to more inmates or longer sentences, and
budget shortfalls make it harder to pay the additional cost of housing them.

So far, legislators have been unwilling to lessen penalties for any crime.
The commission suggested several alternatives two years ago that could
divert 4,600 prisoners over 10 years, but they have yet to gain traction
because legislators fear they'll be branded soft on crime.