CROP SUBSTITUTION PROGRAMMES NOT WORKING

"The Shan State with not just the crop-substitution programmes, but also
with industrial and other projects that will give the farmers a new
opportunity to stop the opium growing and have enough money to live,"
commented a Thai officer assigned to this task.

But a change to other crops is not so simple. A Wa dissident warned: "Many
farmers have problems finding a market for other crops, and the price may
not be enough to survive on. So they return to growing the opium poppies as
they have been doing for decades."

Then, he disclosed: "Some powerful Wa leaders offer cash to the farmers
even before the seeds are planted. This naturally encourages them to grow
the opium."

All this is going on in the Wa region despite repeated promises by Pau Yu
Chang to eliminate opium growing in the Wa area by 2005.

"He has only one year left to fulfill his pledge," reminded the Wa dissident.

HARD PROMISE TO KEEP

Even some of Pau Yu Chang's staunchest supporters _ and there don't seem to
be many left _ don't see the pledge as being realistic, but keep going
quietly along out of fear. Even his younger brother, Pau Yu Hua, who
commands the UWSA's headquarters security force, told some 200 commanders
and officials who were assembled for an "emergency meeting" in the northern
Wa capital of Pang Sang on July 7, 2003, that the deadline should be moved
to 2007, reasoning that it would be impossible to meet the pledge for 2005
"given the current political and economic situation."

His suggestion obviously wasn't heeded by the UWSA leader, who almost six
months later _ on December 26, 2003 _ admitted to the assembled reporters
who came to witness the inauguration of the Thai-funded hospital at
Wa-controlled Baan Yong Kha village that some villagers in the Wa area were
still cultivating opium, but still firmly reiterated his commitment to
eradicate planting by 2005.

The ceremony, which was co-presided over by commanders of Thailand's Third
Army Region and Burma's Triangle Army Region, gave the UWSA chairman a
photo opportunity to be fully exploited. He said to the press: "We regret
that the global community is unfair to us. We do not produce drugs but are
always accused of doing so."

He claimed that the chemicals required to produce methamphetamines were
made abroad and that his people didn't have the expertise to control such a
trade, and dismissed allegations that his army was involved in flooding
Thailand with millions of methamphetamine tablets. He also requested
Thailand's cooperation and help in eradicating opium cultivation, and to
end the demonisation of the Wa.

In the meantime, there are reports that brother Pau Yu Hua himself is
addicted to methamphetamines and was taken into custody by the order of a
top UWSA official last month on charges of "unacceptable behaviour."

"It is not clear what punishment he will face but, if nothing else, he will
most probably undergo a drug-rehabilitation treatment," said a source in
Pang Sang. However, Pau Yu Hua was reported later to have been removed from
his position.

Other big opium growing areas are located in parts of the Kachin State. A
representative of the biggest Kachin ceasefire group, the Kachin
Independence Organisation, which is in control of a part of the state, told
Perspective: "Usually, during the harvest time, several hundred soldiers of
our military force, the Kachin Independence Army (KIA), will go around to
search for the opium fields. They are doing their utmost to destroy the
plantations located mainly in the mountainous areas. Sometimes we also
conduct a joint anti-poppy operation with the Burmese government troops."

"We officially ordered our impoverished farmers not to plant the poppies.
But we must consider why they have to plant it. The growing areas are very
difficult to reach. There are no roads, no development. That's why they
have no other alternative but to plant the opium, otherwise they have no
chance to survive. And even if they plant other crops, they have no chance
for selling. We don't have the funds to help them. If this area is
developed then the opium growing will stop for sure," said the Kachin
representative.

"As in other parts of the Shan State, the opium merchants pay the farmers
even before the seeds are planted. There is no heroin refinery in the
Kachin State, so the opium must be sent somewhere else. But despite all the
difficulties we face in the eradication of the opium in our state, we are
determined to do our best to reduce this menace, even though nobody gives
us a kyat, because opium destroys us as much as others," he pledged.

The US Drug Enforcement Administration in its May 2002 Drug Intelligence
Brief on the KIA stated among things that: "Trafficking of opium and heroin
in the Kachin State decreased dramatically, as a result of the KIA
enforcing a ban on opium cultivation and drug trafficking."

Whatever this year's opium harvest will turn out to be, and whatever
"official" figures will be published in this respect by various agencies,
it is clear that the complete eradication of this crop will take many years
or even decades.

The only consolation for Burma is that they have slipped from first to
second biggest grower of opium in the world, after Afghanistan, which has
climbed back to the top spot after the fall of the Taleban regime in 2001.