BOLIVIA ON THE CRITICAL LIST

What?! A potential narco-terrorist anarchic state in the heart of
South America, which could spread instability to the rest of the
region and pose a serious security threat to the United States?

Well, not quite. But a report released this week by the Center for
Global Development, a mainstream Washington think tank, says Bolivia
is one of the dozens of ``weak'' and ``failed'' states around the
world -- alongside Afghanistan, Haiti, Somalia, Zimbabwe and Indonesia
- -- that are on the verge of collapse and require urgent U.S. attention.

In dozens of developing countries, the term ``state'' is a misnomer,
the report says. Governments are unable to perform basic duties, such
as protecting their citizens from internal and external threats and
delivering basic health and education services.

"The collapse of governments often spawns wider regional conflicts,"
it says. ``Even governments lingering weakly in power can create
massive refugee flows, uncontained violence and uncontrolled epidemics
that threaten regional stability.''

Bolivia is a typical case of U.S. inattention to ``weak'' states,
which may become a costly security risk in the future, says the report
by the center's 30-member Commission on Weak States and U.S. National
Security, headed by former Clinton administration Deputy Treasury
Secretary Stuart Eizenstat and former Republican U.S. Rep. John Edward
Porter of Illinois.

The report cites the case of Bolivia's democratically elected
President Gonzalo Sanchez de Lozada, who was toppled in a violent 2003
revolt by coca growers and radical leftist unions. His forced
resignation came after he failed to get $150 million in emergency
funds from President Bush to make up for losses Bolivia had suffered
from a massive U.S.-sponsored coca eradication effort.

As the ousted Bolivian president told me when he arrived in the United
States on his first day in exile, he had told Bush at a meeting in
Washington weeks earlier that he needed the money urgently to make the
payroll that month or he would be back in Washington soon as a
political exile. Indeed, Sanchez de Lozada was back in Washington soon
- -- as an exile.

The current democratic government of President Carlos Mesa is hanging
by a thread, threatened by ultra-leftist coca growers and radical
Indian groups.

"This is a case where the United States, for a paltry amount of
money, could have helped secure a country in Latin America,'' says
Center for Global Development Director Nancy Birdsall. ``If Bolivia
turns into a narco state, it would be a risk not only for Bolivia, but
also for Brazil, for Venezuela, for the corruption of all neighboring
countries, and ultimately a risk for the United States."

To prevent the collapse of ``weak'' and ``failed'' states around the
world, and save the United States from costly military invasions and
uphill nation-building operations, the authors of the report recommend
creation of a Cabinet-level ``U.S. development secretary'' -- like in
Britain -- to identify endangered states and coordinate foreign aid
programs among 12 U.S. agencies.

``Right now, the State Department does crisis management, and
long-term development gets a short thrift,'' the Center's project
director Jeremy Weinstein told me. ``And the U.S. Agency for
International Development has basically become an institution that
programs and spreads money. Its authority to make policy and develop
strategies has been taken away.''

My conclusion: the report rightly points out that the U.S. government
is making a mistake by focusing only on ``failed'' states, such as
Afghanistan, Somalia and Haiti, while not paying enough attention to
``weak'' states, such as Bolivia. It is a distinction that hasn't been
made this clear in U.S. foreign policy circles until now, and that
should help focus efforts on propping up endangered states before they
fail.

To be fair, the Bush administration has increased U.S. aid to the
poorest countries in the world, many of them ``weak'' states, with its
$5 billion Millenium Challenge Fund. But to qualify, countries have to
adhere to U.S.-styled free market policies and other economic
standards that many of them can't meet, precisely because they are so
weak.

Perhaps it's time to relax these conditions for some ``weak''
countries, before they become much more costly international security
risks, and their presidents end up as exiles in Washington.

Andres Oppenheimer is a Latin America correspondent for the Miami Herald.