CANDIDATES IN CANADIAN VOTE ARE POISED FOR A DEAD HEAT

TORONTO, June 26 - When the Toronto Blue Jays invited all the major
candidates for prime minister to take part in throwing out the first
ball at a game this week, campaign advisers agonized over the
implications of an embarrassing bobble on the mound, a wild pitch or
unrelenting jeers from the bleachers.

In the end, only the Conservative leader, Stephen Harper, agreed to
throw, and his off-speed pitch over the plate rewarded him with
front-page photographs making him look robust only days before the
June 28 parliamentary election.

Though it was a rare spontaneous moment in an otherwise controlled
campaign, Mr. Harper's walk to the mound was symbolic. Unlike the last
three landslide Liberal victories in national elections since 1993,
the vote on Monday is anybody's ballgame. A variety of polls show
Prime Minister Paul Martin's Liberals and Mr. Harper's Conservatives
virtually tied, with neither party likely to win more than 35 percent
of the vote.

The result is likely to produce a lot of political uncertainty, with a
shaky minority government depending for survival on two third parties,
the labor-aligned New Democratic Party and the separatist Bloc
Quebecois. Whether the Conservatives or Liberals win control of the
House of Commons, either side will need to make compromises to remain
in power that are likely to have an important impact on social policy
and relations with the United States.

Both the New Democratic Party and the Bloc Quebecois oppose Mr.
Martin's willingness to enter into negotiations with the Bush
administration to take part in a continental missile defense system.
They both want Canada to take a more aggressive stance in trade
negotiations with the United States to reduce American tariffs on
softwood lumber. The New Democrats, who are suspicious of free trade,
would go so far as to link energy exports to lumber exports.

Both parties support legislation to legalize possession of marijuana,
strengthen environmental protection and extend gay rights.

The Bloc Quebecois is poised to sweep Quebec and become a power broker
in Ottawa for the first time. It can be expected to use its position
to advance its separatist cause for Quebec. But as a party that
supports free trade and strong local government, it could serve as a
useful if unlikely ally to the Conservative Party despite broad
differences of opinion on many social and economic issues.

In an interview on his campaign bus in Montreal, the Bloc Quebecois
leader, Gilles Duceppe, said he would work with any governing party on
issues of mutual concern.

"If it's good for Quebec, we'll support it," he said. "If it isn't, we
will not." He said the Bloc would push legislation to increase federal
financing for health care and to fight organized crime gangs.

Alain G. Gagnon, chairman of Quebec and Canadian Studies at the
University of Quebec in Montreal, said the Bloc would be taking a risk
if it appeared to be strengthening either the Conservatives or the
Liberals.

"The day they are viewed as a collaborationist party, it will mean the
undermining of the raison d'etre of the party itself," he said.

The New Democratic Party leader, Jack Layton, has attacked Mr. Martin
hard during the campaign. But Mr. Layton's party could prop up a
Liberal minority government in exchange for increased aid to cities
and a halt to privatization of health care services. He would also
press for a sweeping change in election law that would give third
parties proportional representation in future parliaments.

In a telephone interview, Mr. Layton refused to speculate on possible
negotiations with a future governing party, but was openly gleeful
about the prospects of a minority government he might be able to influence.

"Canada's minority governments of the past have produced remarkably
good legislation," he noted, including sweeping health care, pension
and housing programs.

But while there have been nine minority governments since 1921, few
have lasted very long before they lost confidence votes in the
Parliament and were forced to call new elections. The last minority
government, in 1979, survived six months.

Newspaper columnists and broadcast commentators are already
speculating about how the next government could fall in a matter of
months. It is even possible, some note, that both Mr. Harper and Mr.
Martin could both form governments and serve as prime minister before
the next election.

"Few scenarios can lead to another election in more than 12 months,"
predicted Pierre Martin, a political scientist at the University of
Montreal.

When he replaced Prime Minister Jean Chretien in December, Mr. Martin
was far ahead in opinion polls. But soon after he took office, the
auditor general released an audit charging the Liberal government with
spreading tens of millions of dollars to advertising firms that give
donations to the governing party as part of a campaign to stymie
separatist forces in Quebec.

The scandal caused a furor across Canada, and Mr. Harper's
Conservatives catapulted to the lead in polls. But the race has drawn
closer in recent days as he was embarrassed by missteps including a
campaign press release suggesting that Mr. Martin condoned child
pornography.

With all the uncertainty, it is unclear how the next government will
deal with the United States on efforts to settle various trade
disputes and to cooperate on security, including a continental missile
defense system.

"A minority government will be focused on surviving and unable to take
any significant initiatives," predicted Robert A. Pastor, director of
the Center for North American Studies at American University in
Washington. "It will be equivalent to a divided and stalemated
government, not unlike Mexico's today."