CHECKING CRIME STATS WHEN THEY COUNT

Last week I did a little venting about some of the problems with --
and possible interpretations of -- outdated crime stats and
behind-the-times experts.

By the time all the talking heads get hold of crime stats, they're
about a year behind the times. They're analysing last year's numbers
in comparisons to other jurisdictions. We're suffering this year's
reality.

I have two predictions for next year's review of this year's crime.
You'll likely see a serious spike in street crime and also an alarming
increase in the number of criminal activities associated with some
recent African immigrants.

>From talking to folks in the neighbourhood, I can tell you that
there's lots of concern about some of the recent trends with crime
around here. Lots more people getting roughed up or threatened for
their wallets, bikes, phones or purses. Even prostitutes in the area
have complained about an increase in being "jacked" for money.

Over the past few years, the "big boys" of crime got more aggressive
with staking out their turf, establishing their control over certain
elements of the criminal enterprise. My guess is that the smaller
players are passing on the bullying and greed they've experienced at
the hands of others.

Reorganizations and splits among gangs and wannabees are growing. The
lower cost and chemical effects of street drugs are breeding more
petty crime, more violent addicts and dealers.

Another disturbing trend is the number of African immigrants and
refugees getting sucked into the illicit drug trade. This involvement
brings with it all the attendant criminal activities associated with
the trade. The reasons for this trend are a bit easier to figure.

It seems some of the other players in the drug trade are getting tired
of getting busted, hassled or hauled to jail. Seeking a fresh layer of
insulation from legal and criminal accountability, these guys are
apparently targeting a new crop of youth to do their dirty work.

It's actually been happening for awhile. And African immigrants are
not the first to be exploited by the pseudo-organized criminal element
in Winnipeg. European, Asian and Caribbean immigrants have been
similarly exploited in the past.

But the young men targeted for this wave of exploitation are perfect
targets.

They're typically young, from their late teens to 20s. Many come from
countries with levels of violence, desperation and corruption
unimaginable in Winnipeg. Some have witnessed and survived massacres
and atrocities incomprehensible to meek and mild Manitobans.

Many immigrants face some disillusionment as they reach a land of
amazing opportunities -- most of which are not nearly as present as
the bills they have to pay. Some find solid supports in the community
and work hard to overcome their disappointment. For others,
disappointment smolders into resentment and desperation.

It's at this point that the lure of quick cash and "respect" on the
streets is particularly attractive to those frustrated in pursuit of
legitimate opportunities and tired of prejudice against people of
their age, colour, or country of origin.

Those familiar with the culture of crime in our neighbourhood are
alarmed and saddened at the number of young males from these refugee
and immigrant communities which seem to be actively involved or
loitering at the fringes of criminal activity.

But we better turn our response into action quickly. Otherwise,
everyone will soon reap the disastrous results of neglect or ducking a
serious issue.

Perhaps Judy Sgro might spend more time on this issue than taking
cheap shots at churches for assisting immigrants who have earned
strong community support and credibility. Hopefully immigration and
refugee agencies will provide some constructive suggestions. It's
sometimes tough to even discuss issues like this without legitimate
concerns being deflected by allegations of profiling or racism. Recent
African refugees and immigrants are painfully aware of the problems
being caused by some in their own community. And it's crucial that we
work together on this problem.

At the same time, we need to be especially vigilant against racist
interpretations of these facts. There are always some who look for any
excuse to slam any immigration, denouncing any allowance for
"foreigners" building a new life. The majority of recent African (and
other) immigrants are a blessing to Winnipeg.

Left unheeded, this situation will produce far more serious problems.
Recruiting a specific group of people for criminal behaviour will not
just harm the neighbourhood and further alienate the recruits.

It will backfire on the recruiters. It won't take long before the
recruits tire of being "sub-contractors" and organize to grab their
own slice of the action. That's a gang war just waiting to happen.

It's time we insist that people pay attention to today's trends rather
than contenting themselves with autopsies of last year's stats.