VOTERS BACK OFF FROM BIG CHANGES

Poll: Gay Unions, Medical Marijuana Get Chilly Response

A constitutional amendment banning same-sex marriage in Oregon appears
headed to easy approval in November, according to a new poll by the
Tribune.

The poll showed 57 percent of Oregon voters supporting the proposal
and 38 percent opposed. Another 5 percent hadn't undecided.

The gay marriage amendment is one of eight statewide measures Oregon
voters will decide Nov. 2.

The poll, conducted by Research 2000 of Rockville, Md., questioned 600
likely Oregon voters by phone from Sept. 13 to Sept. 16. The margin of
error was plus or minus 4 percentage points.

The results are consistent with other polls on the issue, an
indication that voters have made up their minds and may not change no
matter the efforts of supporters on either side of the issue, said Jim
Moore, an independent political analyst and adjunct political science
professor at Pacific University.

"This poll confirms the spring polling," Moore said. "Even with
everything that happened with Multnomah County and Benton County,
people have maintained their opinions over the last six months. That
shows it's going to be hard to move voters."

Supporters of the measure and several other political campaigns
started their television advertising last week, overlapping with the
dates of the poll.

The poll didn't give opponents much to be happy about. Here's a quick
look at highlights:

. Men favored the measure 60 percent to 36 percent; women 54 percent
to 40 percent.

. Republicans supported the amendment 74 percent to 23 percent, and
independents 53 percent to 39 percent. Democrats opposed it 49 percent
to 44 percent.

Heavy pluralities against the measure in Democratic Multnomah County
might not be enough to offset opposition elsewhere in the state, Moore
said.

"A big vote in Multnomah County and Lane County could change the
results, yes," he said. "But gay marriage is seen as different than
the gay rights debates we had in the '90s. The gay marriage issue has
shifted the debate, so we don't know if Multnomah County will shift
the numbers. This gay marriage question is untried."

Gay marriage supporters said they remain optimistic that they will be
able to defeat the measure. The campaign in opposition began its radio
advertising Monday and will begin TV ads in the not too distant
future, said Aisling Coghlin, campaign manager for No on
Constitutional Amendment 36.

"We're not discouraged by the results," Coghlin said. "We know once we
start talking about amending the Oregon Constitution to mandate
unequal treatment for gays and lesbians, the voters will reconsider
their positions. This is an issue we have been talking about in Oregon
for a long time. We know Oregon voters are really willing to listen
and engage in a conversation.

"It's tough, but it's definitely a campaign we can.win."

But Tim Nashif, political director for the Defense of Marriage
Coalition, which supports the amendment, said many voters have already
made up their minds.

"It's not like people are ignorant on the issue," he said. "You can't
watch your TV or read your newspaper without finding something on
same-sex marriage. We're going to work hard and present our message
and do it in a kind and sensitive manner, because our main goal is to
preserve marriage as between one man and one woman. We're not
interested in taking aim at any group of people at all. It's
unfortunate that our opponents feel that way, but it's not our intent."

Here is a look at what the polls showed about other ballot
measures:

. Measure 33 would expand the use of medical marijuana in Oregon,
first approved by voters in 1998. This new version would increase the
number of medical practitioners allowed to prescribe marijuana and
permit caregivers to grow marijuana for 10 users.

Voters, however, seem uncomfortable with the plan. The poll showed 48
percent opposed, 41 percent in support and 11 percent undecided. The
party-line divisions on the measure were pronounced, with Republicans
opposing it 64 percent to 26 percent, Democrats in support 55 percent
to 31 percent and unaffiliated voters in opposition, 47 percent to 39
percent.

. Measure 34 would require the state to balance the timber harvest in
state forests with recreation, watershed protection and forest
restoration. Now, state forests are managed more for economic value,
which mostly means timber production in the Clatsop and Tilla-mook
state forests, which make up more than half of state-owned lands.

In the poll, 46 percent of the respondents favored the plan, 23
percent opposed it, and 31 percent said they were undecided.

. Measure 35 would cap noneconomic damages at $500,000 in lawsuits
stemming from injuries caused by medical negligence. Voters rejected a
measure in 2000 that would have allowed the Legislature to establish
such caps.

Voters still seem uneasy with the limits, with 52 percent of the poll
respondents opposing the measure, 35 percent in support and 13 percent
undecided.