BUMPER CROP EXPECTED

A Knowledgeable Source Claims That, Contrary To Common Belief, Opium
Poppy Cultivation Has Increased In Some Areas Of Burma

"I don't like drugs and addicts. They don't want to work and they
commit crimes to fund their habit." These were the first words out of
the mouth of Sai Kam (not his real name), who agreed to meet and tell
"everything" about the drug business along the Thai-Burmese border.
Sai Kam is an agent for an anti-narcotics group based in Nam Hkam in
northern Shan State of Burma. There has been a significant increase in
opium poppy cultivation between Nam Hkam and Kutkai areas in the past
years because of the reduced output in Wa, Kokang and other regions of
the state, he said.

"The drug gangs now target new areas. It is like a plastic balloon _
when you press one side, it will bulge on the other," he quipped.

A source interviewed by phone from the Wa capital of Pang Sang
confirmed Sai Kam's words: "As the pressure mounted from Burmese,
Chinese and Thai governments, Wa leaders ordered the opium farmers to
stop cultivation. And whether this was the reason for reduced output
this year, or it was the bad weather, is hard to say. But to cover the
financial losses and for security reasons, the drug bosses moved the
business to other parts of the country."

In 2000, Pau Yu Chang, chairman of the United Wa State Army,
guaranteed Burma's Prime Minister Khin Nyunt "then Lt-Gen and
Secretary of the ruling State Peace and Development Council (SPDC)"
that he would eradicate all opium poppy cultivation from the Wa
regions by 2005.

"His promise is looking harder and harder to keep as poppy seeds have
currently been planted in many areas. Furthermore, there have been
attempts to get two crops yearly on the same plot of land, for
harvesting in November and March. This experiment is still going on.
Opium poppies in various areas of Shan State are also planted in other
months,depending on the local conditions," the source disclosed.

Attempts to grow poppy in Karen and Arakan states failed because of
the unsuitable soil and unfavourable climate. But they were successful
in the Chin State close to the Indian border, where the quality of the
opium was proved to be satisfactory, said Sai Kam. "The poppies are
now in blossom in western Karenni State adjoining our state," he said.
"Seeds are already in the ground for the next harvest."Most of the
heroin refined here will be smuggled to China, Thailand and to other
parts of Burma.

Sai Kam stresses that the local farmers, who are very poor, can't
survive without growing opium poppy as they have no other way to live,
and until now, no one has offered them any other option. They grow
rice and vegetables, but only for their own consumption. "Some
foreigners from a United Nations agency came to visit us, but after
talking with several local officials, they left," he said.

According to Sai Kam, a 500-strong Chinese-Lisu militia group guards
the poppy plantations, collects land and opium taxes, and also buys
and resells opium. "The militias were set up, armed and trained by the
Burmese government to protect us against insurgents. But some of the
low-ranking corrupt officials are more involved in the drug business,"
he claimed.

Sai Kam also charged that members of the Lisu tribe, who originated in
Tibet and migrated through China to Burma, are "born" into the drug
trade, something not well known to outsiders. Many Lisu people also
live in northern Thailand, Laos and India.

Reports overly optimistic

That opium production and processing into heroin is still thriving in
Burma is illustrated by a drug seizure on July 9 this year "the
biggest ever" when local authorities confiscated nearly 600 kg of
heroin in a fishing village in Ye township of the Mon State, 600 km
southeast of Rangoon.

Despite an overall reduction of poppy cultivation and opium
production, Burma still ranks second after Afghanistan, where
production skyrocketed after the ruling Taliban was ousted by a US-led
coalition force in 2001.

Laos is a distant third, and by most reports it is becoming less of a
contributor to the worldwide heroin scourge. A United Nations Office
on Drugs and Crime survey on Laos, released in July this year, said
the total area under opium poppy cultivation for 2004 season decreased
by 45 percent compared to 2003, while opium production fell by over 64
percent.

The survey was conducted with cooperation of the Lao National
Commission for Drug Control and Suppression.The Laotian government
aims to eliminate opium poppy cultivation in the country by 2005 and
says it will be completely free of the drug by 2015.

But a Shan who monitors drug-related matters in the area asserted:
"Laos is a potential heroin producer and a key route for the smuggling
of illicit drugs because of its location next to Burma, China,
Cambodia and Thailand. Don't mind all the positive reports coming out
from various sources. Anyone who has any interest in the drug trade,
whether it is economic, political or in suppression, fashions the
truth to their benefit.

"The hard fact is that the cultivation and production of opium to be
refined into lethal heroin for distribution throughout the world
continues unabated in the Golden Triangle. Despite optimistic reports
and predictions, the opium trade remains big business," Sai Kam concluded.