DRUG DEALERS EYED IN ATTACK ON KARZAI RUNNING MATE

KABUL, Afghanistan -- Drug dealers may have been behind an
assassination attempt on the vice presidential running mate of Afghan
President Hamid Karzai, the government said Thursday.

Wednesday's attack on Ahmed Zia Massood in Badakhshan province, a
fertile poppy-growing region in the north, killed one person and
injured five others, including the former provincial governor. It came
just days before Saturday's landmark election, when Afghans will
choose a president for the first time.

Sardar Roshan, Karzai's campaign manager, suggested drug smugglers
might be worried that the election could give the government a mandate
to crack down on the burgeoning drug trade.

"Badakhshan is one of the biggest producers of poppy cultivation with
a lot of warlords around," Roshan said. "The drug dealers and warlords
support one another. When a strong man comes along, they will resist."

The attack indicates the challenges the new president will have in
confronting powerful warlords who use profits from poppies, from which
opium and heroin are made, to fund their armies and amass power.

Karzai, who assumed power with U.S. backing in December 2001, has
vowed to eradicate poppies. But he lacks the military or political
muscle to move against the drug trade.

Although he has had difficulty extending his influence beyond the
country's capital of Kabul, Karzai is expected to win the election.
He's competing against 15 other candidates. Two minor candidates
dropped out Wednesday and threw their support to him.

Whoever wins, the warlords will still have the upper hand.

About 60,000 to 100,000 armed men are members of private militias,
according to CARE International, an aid organization. As of last
month, about 16,000 militia soldiers have been demobilized. At the
same time, about 13,000 soldiers have been recruited in the Afghan
National Army. The goal is to recruit 70,000 by 2005.

Poppies are being grown in 28 of 32 Afghan provinces, and this year's
crop is expected to yield 75 percent of the world's heroin. The United
Nations has concluded that the combined income of poppy farmers and
smugglers last year was about $2 billion, half of Afghanistan's economy.

"It's another indication on how the opium trade destabilizes local
politics," said John Sifton, the Afghanistan researcher for Human
Rights Watch's Asia division. "If Massood had been killed, it would
have been hugely destabilizing. It would have knocked out Karzai's
vice presidential candidate. Who would take his place on the ticket at
this late date?"

Sifton said a test of whether the election will help eliminate the
warlords' power will come when the new president selects a Cabinet.

"If it's stocked with warlords as it is now, a lot of Afghans will see
this as a meaningless political exercise because it will be more of
the same. Warlords will dominate the process."

A strained atmosphere settled over Kabul on Thursday following reports
of the attack.

Countless shops were closed, and cars and trucks moved easily on the
normally congested roads.

More than 100,000 security personnel, including 18,000 American-led
troops and 9,000 NATO peacekeepers, have been patrolling the country
to provide security for voters.

U.S. and Afghan officials have warned of increasing attacks by Taliban
militants in the days before the election and on Saturday.

An estimated 10.5 million people have registered to vote. However, a
surprisingly sharp rise in registrations over the summer has led to
speculation about multiple registrations that could throw the
legitimacy of the election into question.

"I don't think the situation is right for voting," said candidate
Ghulam Faruq, a political activist and physician. "We need peace and
security. We need roads and infrastructure. The warlords still have
too much control. We don't have a fully functioning national army.
Without peace, how can we do it correctly?"