CRIME INITIATIVE LOSES MOMENTUM

Governor's Opposition Key to Turnaround

With Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger lending last-minute political star power
and fundraising muscle to defeating Proposition 66, support for softening
California's "three strikes" law is eroding so rapidly the measure has gone
from a sure thing to being very much up in the air.

A new Field Poll set to be released today shows support for the measure has
dropped from 65 percent in early October to 55 percent with just days left
before the election. Perhaps more significant, a portion of the polling
taken this week for the first time found opposition to Proposition 66
overtaking support by a narrow margin, the most dramatic late shift in
memory for a statewide ballot measure.

The shift coincides with a furious late push this past week to defeat the
measure by Schwarzenegger, who aired a television ad and appeared with
three former governors, including Democrats Gray Davis and Jerry Brown, to
denounce Proposition 66, which would reform the toughest sentencing law in
the nation. Billionaire Henry Nicholas III, the founder of Broadcom, also
this week pumped more than $1 million into the campaign against the measure.

Field Polls taken from last May until earlier this month showed the measure
passing by an overwhelming margin.

"I've seen declines before, but I've never seen it this abrupt," said Mark
DiCamillo, one of the pollsters. "The linkage of Arnold himself with the
'no' side in a very visible way sunk into voters this week."

Proposition 66 would change the law by requiring that a defendant be
convicted of a violent or serious felony as a third strike in order to
become eligible for a three-strikes sentence of 25 years to life in prison.
California is the only state that allows those potential life sentences to
be imposed for non-violent third strike such as shoplifting or drug possession.

The measure would thus soften the most controversial element of the
three-strikes law, passed 10 years ago in the aftermath of the Polly Klaas
kidnapping and murder by career criminal Richard Allen Davis. Supporters of
the law, led by Joe Klaas, Polly's grandfather, insist that voters never
intended those sentences to be imposed for non-violent third strikes, and
that the ballot measure would reverse an injustice for thousands of inmates
serving life terms.

Critics of Proposition 66, led by the state's prosecutors, warn that the
measure would allow more than 20,000 violent criminals to be released to
communities.

Over the past week, the two sides have traded accusations that they are
misleading voters, but it appears that Schwarzenegger and other Proposition
66 foes are having more success with their message, at least based on the
latest Field Poll.

"It's not surprising, because as the election gets closer, voters pay more
attention to the ballot," said Rob Stutzman, the governor's communications
chief. "It's not surprising they are waking up to the fact that 66 is a
massive deception."

Backers of the measure, however, say they believe Proposition 66 will hold
on to its support and that they always expected a closer race than earlier
polls forecast.

"Yes, Governor Schwarzenegger is effective," said Sandy Harrison, a
representative for the Yes on 66 campaign. "It doesn't change the fact that
what he's saying is absolutely false. We knew the other side would be
making very scary and untrue claims about Proposition 66."

In the latest poll, 55 percent of voters surveyed from Oct. 21 to Oct. 27
backed Proposition 66, with 33 percent saying they would vote no and 12
percent undecided. However, the voters in that survey who were questioned
between Oct. 25 and Oct. 27 -- a period in which Schwarzenegger very
publicly threw his weight against the measure -- produced very different
results.

Forty-seven percent of those voters opposed the measure, with 46 percent
saying they would vote yes and 7 percent undecided.

The latest Field Poll also addressed other propositions. The survey found
propositions 60 and 62, competing measures involving the state's primary
election process, both passing, although Proposition 62 is slipping.
Proposition 62 would end the requirement that voters choose candidates from
their own parties in state and congressional primary elections. Proposition
60 would retain the status quo. If both pass, the measure with the most
votes takes effect.

And the poll also found two measures that would vastly expand gambling in
California continuing to lose by wide margins. Those measures are also
opposed by the governor.