AFGHAN OPIUM

Drug Profits Threaten Stability

Opium production in Afghanistan threatens to undermine gains made at
the ballot box toward uniting the country under an elected government.

Production increased in nearly every measure, according to the United
Nations' 2004 Afghanistan Opium Survey. This year's opium harvest rose
17 percent to 4,200 metric tons in spite of international efforts to
restrict production. Bad weather and disease prevented it from
exceeding the record production of 4,600 metric tons in 1999, the year
before the Taliban banned new cultivation.

The country, which has the highest drug cultivation in the world, is
responsible for 87 percent of the world's opium, and the primary
reason is economic: huge profits can be made by impoverished farmers.
The 2.8 billion in estimated value of the trade this year was
equivalent to 60 percent of the country's gross domestic product last
year.

Given the profits to be made and the limited economic alternatives,
Afghans disregard government warnings that cultivating opium is illegal.

The trade is financing Taliban remnants and al-Qaida who are fighting
the newly elected government and international forces.

Local militia and warlords are also profiting from opium cultivation.
It is creating fears that the country will become another narco-state
as seen in Colombia where rebels are relying on illicit cocaine
profits to finance their military campaign.

Antonio Maria Costa, executive director of the U.N. Office on Drugs
and Crime, equate fighting narcotics with fighting terrorism. He
warned that "opium cultivation, which has spread like wildfire
throughout the country, could ultimately incinerate everything:
democracy, reconstruction, and stability."

Afghan officials have appealed for foreign help, but they will also
have to address allegations that government officials are involved on
the narcotics trade. With foreign assistance, it will also have to
step up its eradication campaign and prosecution of drug
traffickers.

Paramilitary units are being trained by America and Britain to destroy
laboratories and arrest suspects, and the United States has pledged
$780 million to fight narcotics. The head of NATO has also called for
an international plan under U.N. directions.

The troubling U.N. report contrast with another report highlighting
the success of the recent presidential election as a political and
psychological setback for the Taliban.

It would be a setback to the political successes now to have an
entrenched opponent financed by illicit drug profits. Combating the
drug trade is a long-term problem requiring international commitment.
Otherwise, the surge in opium cultivation presents a threat to the
stability of Afghanistan and the region.