TAKEOVER OF THE DRUG TRAFFICKERS

Afghanistan is no longer ruled by the Taliban and its terrorist
supporters. But a new United Nations report highlights a problem that
could be just as bad for the landlocked nation.

Afghanistan is not just the world's leading producer of illicit
narcotics; it supplies 87% of the world's heroin supply. Opium grows
in every one of the 32 Afghan provinces.

Without urgent action, the democratic elections could become
meaningless, as drug traffickers turn Afghanistan into a
terrorist-friendly narco-state once again.

The UN Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC) said last week the
opium-heroin problem in Afghanistan is out of control.

Figures for the agency's annual country report tell a sorry tale.
Poppy cultivation rose 64% in the past year to 131,000 hectares _ more
than 800,000 rai. Some 2.3 million people are involved in growing,
harvesting or converting opium to heroin _ a full 10% of all Afghan
citizens.

It is not only the most valuable crop in Afghanistan, valued in all at
$30 billion (1.2 trillion baht) _ it is the country's biggest industry.

UNODC executive director Antonio Maria Costa dropped the diplomatic
language as he made the report public.

Afghanistan is degenerating into a narco-state, he said. Drugs are
corrupting the public sector and law enforcement. Provincial and
regional druglords have become powerful warlords because the drugs
have purchased guns, influence and, of course, power. Would-be
businessmen are getting involved in drug trafficking for the quick,
huge profits.

That puts further pressure on the economy, building the drug trade
over legitimate commerce.

Mr Costa's stark figures prove the point about the dire circumstances
of Afghanistan. And there are two other hugely worrying problems.

One can be measured: Afghan income down and falling because of the
rise of the drugs trade. Mr Costa's agency showed that in just a year,
the income of a family raising opium dropped from $3,900 to $1,700
last year _ or from 155,500 baht to 67,780 baht. As in Thailand in the
past, opium farmers were marginalised by greedy drug merchants
squeezing their income.

That brings the second problem, that the bandits, warlords and
terrorists living off drug trafficking are thriving.

The rise of the narco-state is inexorable, but it is not inevitable.
The Kabul government led by Hamid Karzai is legitimate thanks to the
successful elections. It is growing in influence, appointing more officials.

Mr Karzai is committed to spreading the constitutional power of the
central government into the countryside, and to fighting the growth of
the opium merchants. He has his work cut out, not least because
regional warlords are feeding and accumulating power from the
narcotics trade.

It is unclear why the United States, Europe, Japan, Australia and
others have failed to act in their own interest in Afghanistan until
now. Still, although the drug traffickers are in the ascendant, it is
not too late. Afghanistan needs to be guided and, most important,
financed into a proper drug programme, such as the one that converted
Thailand from world-class narcotics trafficker to law-abiding world
citizen.

Theoretically, at least, Afghanistan even has an advantage over
Thailand, because Islam so clearly and importantly bans the use, sale
and production of illicit drugs.

The United Nations and the friends of Afghanistan, first of all the
United States but also the members of Nato who are involved in the
war, must use carrots and sticks.

They must convince the druglords that it is in their interest to move
into legal businesses. Business incentives such as profitable crop
alternatives and naked military force can convince farmers to sever
relations with druglords.

As for the nearby terrorists and Taliban remnants encouraging all
anti-government actions, a bigger Afghan police department and better
Afghan army must move to secure the countryside. It is not just the
drug traffickers waiting for bigger narcotics profits.

The terrorists, too, want funds to spread their violence further
abroad.