NEW AFGHAN POPPY CROP WILL ENRICH WARLORDS BY $7 BILLION

WASHINGTON: If the current poppy crop in Afghanistan is allowed to be
harvested, it will put an estimated $7 billion in the coffers of the
country's warlords.

While a bumper poppy harvest is expected in Afghanistan in the new year, a
debate has erupted within the Bush administration on whether the United
States should push for the crop's destruction despite objections from the
Karzai government, according to a report in the Los Angeles Times on Sunday.

Some US officials advocate aerial spraying to reduce the crop, warning that
if harvested, it could flood the West with heroin, fill the coffers of
Taliban fighters and fund terrorist activity in Afghanistan and beyond.
They estimate the haul could earn Afghan warlords up to $7 billion, up from
a record $2.2 billion in 2004. With the January planting season
approaching, the State Department is asking Congress to earmark nearly $780
million in aid to Afghanistan, the world's largest opium producer, for a
counter-narcotics effort that would include $152 million for aerial
eradication.

The report notes that although President Hamid Karzai has declared a
"jihad" against the drug trade, he is opposed to aerial spraying, a
position with which certain American officials are in agreement as they
fear that it would alienate rural voters whom they have so far expected to
take part in the parliamentary elections due to take place in April.

"The dispute underscores a vexing dilemma for the United States. Having
ousted the Taliban from power, the Bush administration now finds that its
three main policy objectives in the strategically important country -
counter-terrorism, counter-narcotics and political stability - appear to be
contradictory. President Bush's cabinet has discussed the problem, sources
said, and the US ambassador to Afghanistan met with Bush in December. But
the White House has reportedly not made a final decision," says the newspaper.

Some diplomats and outside experts argue that aerial spraying of the crop
would be folly as it would destroy the livelihood of a large number of
Afghan farmers. There are fears that if the crop was destroyed, the Afghan
economy could decline by as much as 40 percent in one year, leading to an
armed revolt. Instead of trying to eradicate this year's poppy crop, the
two governments, it is argued, should focus on providing alternative
livelihoods for farmers, improving law enforcement and drug interdiction.
Eradication should only be considered once the political climate is more
stable, according to Mark L Schneider of the International Crisis Group.

Aerial spraying, Schneider warns, could provide the Taliban with a great
recruiting opportunity. Other administration officials and lawmakers warn
that allowing the Afghan economy to become dependent on narco-profits could
be even more dangerous.

Robert B Charles, assistant secretary of state for international narcotics
and law enforcement, has asserted that drug profits are "almost definitely"
funding the Taliban - who once banned opium farming - and possibly Al Qaeda
as well. According to him, the profits are also flowing to the
Hezb-i-Islami faction led by Gulbuddin Hekmatyar. The US government
estimates that poppy cultivation exploded from 150,000 acres in 2003 to
510,000 acres in 2004.

The United Nations has estimated that opium poppies are now grown in all 34
Afghan provinces, up from 18 provinces in 1999 and just eight provinces in 1994.