TALIBAN RAISE POPPY PRODUCTION TO A RECORD AGAIN

LASHKAR GAH, Afghanistan - Afghanistan produced record levels of
opium in 2007 for the second straight year, led by a staggering 45
percent increase in the Taliban stronghold of Helmand Province,
according to a new United Nations survey to be released Monday.

The report is likely to touch off renewed debate about the United
States' $600 million counternarcotics program in Afghanistan, which
has been hampered by security challenges and endemic corruption
within the Afghan government.

"I think it is safe to say that we should be looking for a new
strategy," said William B. Wood, the American ambassador to
Afghanistan, commenting on the report's overall findings. "And I
think that we are finding one."

Mr. Wood said the current American programs for eradication,
interdiction and alternative livelihoods should be intensified, but
he added that ground spraying poppy crops with herbicide remained "a
possibility." Afghan and British officials have opposed spraying,
saying it would drive farmers into the arms of the Taliban.

While the report found that opium production dropped in northern
Afghanistan, Western officials familiar with the assessment said,
cultivation rose in the south, where Taliban insurgents urge farmers
to grow poppies.

Although common farmers make comparatively little from the trade,
opium is a major source of financing for the Taliban, who gain public
support by protecting farmers' fields from eradication, according to
American officials. They also receive a cut of the trade from
traffickers they protect.

In Taliban-controlled areas, traffickers have opened more labs that
process raw opium into heroin, vastly increasing its value. The
number of drug labs in Helmand rose to roughly 50 from 30 the year
before, and about 16 metric tons of chemicals used in heroin
production have been confiscated this year.

The Western officials said countrywide production had increased from
2006 to 2007, but they did not know the final United Nations figure.
They estimated a countrywide increase of 10 to 30 percent.

The new survey showed positive signs as well, officials said.

The sharp drop in poppy production in the north is likely to make
this year's countrywide increase smaller than the growth in 2006.
Last year, a 160 percent increase in Helmand's opium crop fueled a 50
percent nationwide increase. Afghanistan produced a record 6,100
metric tons of opium poppies last year, 92 percent of the world's supply.

Here in Helmand, the breadth of the poppy trade is staggering. A
sparsely populated desert province twice the size of Maryland,
Helmand produces more narcotics than any country on earth, including
Myanmar, Morocco and Colombia. Rampant poverty, corruption among
local officials, a Taliban resurgence and spreading lawlessness have
turned the province into a narcotics juggernaut.

Poppy prices that are 10 times higher than those for wheat have so
warped the local economy that some farmhands refused to take jobs
harvesting legal crops this year, local farmers said. And farmers
dismiss the threat of eradication, arguing that so many local
officials are involved in the poppy trade that a significant clearing
of crops will never be done.

American and British officials say they have a long-term strategy to
curb poppy production. About 7,000 British troops and Afghan security
forces are gradually extending the government's authority in some
areas, they said. The British government is spending $60 million to
promote legal crops in the province, and the United States Agency for
International Development is mounting a $160 million alternative
livelihoods program across southern Afghanistan, most of it in Helmand.

Loren Stoddard, director of the aid agency's agriculture program in
Afghanistan, cited American-financed agricultural fairs, the
introduction of high-paying legal crops and the planned construction
of a new industrial park and airport as evidence that alternatives
were being created.

Mr. Stoddard, who helped Wal-Mart move into Central America in his
previous posting, predicted that poppy production had become so
prolific that the opium market was flooded and prices were starting
to drop. "It seems likely they'll have a rough year this year," he
said, referring to the poppy farmers. "Labor prices are up and poppy
prices are down. I think they're going to be looking for new things."

On Wednesday, Mr. Stoddard and Rory Donohoe, the director of the
American development agency's Alternative Livelihoods program in
southern Afghanistan, attended the first "Helmand Agricultural
Festival." The $300,000 American-financed gathering in Lashkar Gah
was an odd cross between a Midwestern county fair and a Central Asian
bazaar, devised to show Afghans an alternative to poppies.

Under a scorching sun, thousands of Afghan men meandered among booths
describing fish farms, the dairy business and drip-irrigation
systems. A generator, cow and goat were raffled off. Wizened elders
sat on carpets and sipped green tea. Some wealthy farmers seemed
interested. Others seemed keen to attend what they saw as a picnic.

When Mr. Stoddard and Mr. Donohoe arrived, they walked through the
festival surrounded by a three-man British and Australian security
team armed with assault rifles. "Who won the cow? Who won the cow?"
shouted Mr. Stoddard, 38, a burly former food broker from Provo,
Utah. "Was it a girl or a guy?"

After Afghans began dancing to traditional drum and flute music, Mr.
Donohoe, 29, from San Francisco, briefly joined them.

Some Afghans praised the fair's alternatives crops. Others said only
the rich could afford them. Haji Abdul Gafar, 28, a wealthy
landowner, expressed interest in some of the new ideas.

Saber Gul, a 40-year-old laborer, said he was too poor to take
advantage. "For those who have livestock and land, they can," he
said. "For us, the poor people, there is nothing."

Local officials said all the development programs would fail without
improved security.

Assadullah Wafa, Helmand's governor, said four of Helmand's 13
districts were under Taliban control. Other officials put the number at six.

Mr. Wafa, who eradicated far fewer acres than the governor of
neighboring Kandahar Province, promised to improve eradication in
Helmand next year. He also called for Western countries to decrease
the demand for heroin.

"The world is focusing on the production side, not the buying side," he said.

The day after the agricultural fair, Mr. Stoddard and Mr. Donohoe
gave a tour of a $3 million American project to clear a former Soviet
airbase on the outskirts of town and turn it into an industrial park
and civilian airport.

Standing near rusting Soviet fuel tanks, the two men described how
pomegranates, a delicacy in Helmand for centuries, would be flown out
to growing markets in India and Dubai. Animal feed would be produced
from a local mill, marble cut and polished for construction.

"Once we get this air cargo thing going," Mr. Stoddard said, "it will
open up the whole south."

That afternoon, they showed off a pilot program for growing chili
peppers on contract for a company in Dubai. "These kinds of
partnerships with private companies are what we want here," said Mr.
Donohoe, who has a Master's in Business Administration from
Georgetown University. "We'll let the market drive it."

As the Americans toured the farm, they were guarded by eight Afghans
and three British and Australian guards. The farm itself had received
guards after local villagers began sneaking in at night and stealing
produce. Twenty-four hours a day, 24 Afghan men with assault rifles
staff six guard posts that ring the farm, safeguarding chili peppers
and other produce.

"Some people would say that security is so bad that you can't do
anything," Mr. Donohoe said. "But we do it."

Mr. Wafa, though, called the American reconstruction effort too small
and "low quality."

"There is a proverb in Afghanistan," he said. "By one flower we
cannot mark spring."