KILLINGS' LINK TO DRUG CRACKDOWN EXAMINED

Experts Endorse Theory As Councilman Calls for Lowered Death
Toll

Baltimore's health commissioner made what sounded like an odd
prediction a few years ago: If the city cracked down on the drug trade
and got more addicts into treatment, homicides would spike.

"The more you crack down on the supply and at the same time crack down
on the demand ... there's going to be a smaller market," Dr. Peter L.
Beilenson told police and city officials at the time. "People tend to
fight over shrinking revenue pies."

Beilenson conceded that his theory was based only on the common sense
and market analysis of someone who never took economics in college,
not on any scientific study.

But he is hardly the only subscriber to the theory.

On Saturday, amid a two-day flurry of shootings that put the city's
homicide total for the two-week-old year at 19, acting police
Commissioner Leonard D. Hamm attributed the recent killings to good
police work.

As police have clamped down on the narcotics trade and cut into its
profits, dealers have become more aggressive about collecting drug
debts - leading to more violent confrontations, Hamm said at a news
conference.

"We are keeping with the same game plan ... putting pressure on drug
dealers," Hamm said.

Some city officials said they did not know what to make of that
explanation but were concerned by the violence despite Hamm's
assertion that the drug-related nature of the killings meant "there is
a measure of safety" for law-abiding Baltimoreans.

Last year, the city recorded 278 homicides, the highest number since
1999. Of those, 23 were in January.

"I don't know whether it's because they're cracking down and forcing
them not to be selling their drugs, but what I do want to see is a
decrease in the number of people being killed," said Councilman
Bernard C. "Jack" Young, who, as chairman of the council's executive
appointments committee, will preside over Hamm's as-yet-unscheduled
confirmation hearing.

"I don't want to second-guess his rationale for the spike in the
killings," Young added, "but 19 is too many for me."

Lt. Frederick V. Roussey, president of the city police union Fraternal
Order of Police Lodge 3, said the theory made sense to him, even
though he was not aware of any new police initiatives that would have
triggered the surge.

"I wasn't aware we were doing anything differently," he said. "[But]
if the money's drying up, they want their money. It could cause
problems. It's a very violent trade to be in."

Eli Silverman, professor of police studies at the John Jay College of
Criminal Justice in Manhattan, said police crackdowns in New York and
elsewhere have been known to exacerbate street violence. That can be
the case, he said, when arrests raise fears that dealers will start
"snitching" on each other and people are killed to keep them quiet.

Beilenson said he thought drug treatment also has played a role in
stirring up violence, because it has caused demand for drugs to drop.

The number of drug addicts in the city was estimated at 55,000 to
58,000 a decade ago, using a government formula based on the numbers
of people seeking treatment and testing positive for drugs in jail,
among other factors, Beilenson said.

Beilenson cautions that the figure, while often repeated, was a
"guess." A more up-to-date number, also a guess, is 40,000 to 45,000
addicts, he said.

About 25,000 city residents sought treatment last year, up from about
11,000 in 1999, he said.

"On the demand side, we're treating 2 1/2 times as many people as we
were in 1999. And on the supply side, the police have truly been
cracking down and tightening the noose on drug trafficking," Beilenson
said.

No one is suggesting that homicides, whatever their cause, are a good
way to eliminate drug dealers.

"They're drug dealers, but sometimes they're not discreet in their
shooting and innocent people are hurt, innocent people are
terrorized," Silverman said. "They're not known for their precision."