THE TROUBLE WITH PLAN MEXICO

The White House's Billion-Dollar Deal To Tackle Mexico's Drug Cartels
Risks Repeating The Mistakes Made Elsewhere.

Mexicans have been joking lately that while tall, handsome Vicente Fox
looked every inch a president, his successor, Felipe Calderon, has
done a better job of acting like one. In the nine months since he came
to power, Calderon has proven a steady hand, avoiding the gaffes that
plagued Fox's administration and earning praise for his fiscal
reforms, his canny foreign policy, and - perhaps most of all - his
assault on the country's drug cartels.

Shortly before Fox left office, several cartel chiefs were arrested;
the resultant power vacuum prompted a surge in violence as factions
vied for control of the country's $10m-a-day drug trade.

Last year, Mexico saw 2,100 drug-related killings; this year's total
looks set to be even higher, with pitched gun battles and grisly
beheadings now a regular occurrence.

In response, Calderon has fired hundreds of corrupt police officers
and sent 30,000 soldiers to reclaim the worst-affected regions.

Thousands of arrests have been made, and extraditions to the US have
risen sharply. Not all of the administration's anti-drug policies have
been praiseworthy - new wiretap rules, in particular, have drawn heavy
criticism - but the crackdown's successes have left Calderon's
approval ratings sky-high.

The next step could be more controversial, though: in recent weeks,
the presidents Calderon and Bush have been putting the finishing
touches on a billion-dollar deal to fund Mexico's drug war. Calderon -
a shrewder politician than his predecessor, who earned domestic
criticism for cozying up to Washington - has been talking tough,
insisting that the pay-out is not an aid package but simply due
compensation for a problem that wouldn't exist if it weren't for
America's drug habit.

He has a point: 90% of cocaine in the US arrives via Mexico, and the
vast majority of the assault weapons and "cop killer" pistols used by
drug gangs originate in the US.

Washington, for its part, is keen to avoid casting the deal as a
repeat of Plan Colombia, in part because of a growing realization that
America's flagship anti-drug program has proven singularly
ineffective. Since 2000 the US has ploughed $5bn into Plan Colombia,
subsidizing the country's security forces to the tune of a million
dollars a day. In that time, the amount of land given over to drug
production has increased by 42%. Worse, there has been little or no
impact on the price, purity or availability of cocaine on the streets
of America.

The greatest failing of Plan Colombia was that it sought to dismantle
Colombia's drug industry without addressing the causes for its
existence - it was heavy on Black Hawk helicopters and crop-dusters
but light on the social and economic programs that might have given
Colombia's campesinos a viable alternative to coca farming.

There's little sign that Bush has learned that lesson,
though.

While specific details of the Mexican deal haven't yet been made
public, it seems set to take a similarly gung-ho approach.

The White House won't seek a carbon-copy of its Colombian strategy.
After all, Mexico's problem is drug trafficking, not drug production.
But the core of the deal looks likely to be militaristic, focusing on
giving Mexico's troops an overwhelming advantage by providing them
with high-tech intelligence systems and massive amounts of firepower.

That could prove a costly mistake.

Calderon's strategy so far has been to use the military as a
substitute for his country's corrupt and dysfunctional police force.

That's been effective as a stop-gap, but won't be enough in the long
term. Mexicans are already becoming concerned at reports of human
rights violations - including rapes and beatings - in regions where
soldiers trained for war have been installed as law enforcement officers.

The longer the armed forces remain in place, the more likely they are
to fall prey to the same corruption that wrecked the police force.

In the long run Mexico won't be able to defeat its drug gangs without
re-establishing the rule of law. It needs not just military aid but
assistance building a functioning, adequately-paid police force and
viable, efficient judiciary.

Bush deserves credit for accepting America's complicity in Mexico's
problems; but he needs to find a more creative solution than simply
bolstering the country's armed forces. Wading in with Black Hawks and
bullets galore risks merely making matters worse.