MORE PRISONERS, LESS CRIME?

Experts Differ On Causes, But As Prison Population Has Risen, Crime Rate
Has Fallen

State and federal prison populations continue to grow to record levels, but
the effect on the dropping crime rate is unclear.

According to figures released by the U.S. Bureau of Justice Statistics
yesterday, the number of men and women in state and federal prisons
increased by 2.1 percent in the year ending June 30, 2004, to 1,494,216.

Virginia's prison population at the end of last June was 35,472, also a 2.1
percent increase over the June 2003 total.

In the 10 years before June 30, 2004, the nation's prison population
increased 42 percent, and Virginia's rose 35 percent.

Paige M. Harrison, one of the report's authors, said the number of
prisoners has increased every year since at least the late 1970s. The
growth rate has slowed, however, since the 1990s, she said.

The U.S. incarceration rate, 726 people per 100,000, is the highest in the
world, according to the Justice Policy Institute.

Jonathan Turley, a professor at the George Washington University School of
Law, said the prison growth stems from the elimination of parole for
inmates and the lengthening of criminal sentences in many states in recent
decades.

"The result is a large stagnant body of prisoners who are remaining in the
system. It is part of a warehousing approach to prisons that began in the
1980s," he said.

Turley said it would be hard to make a case that the rising prison
population has lowered the crime rate. "I expect that there is some
impact, but the population of criminal actors in society is so large that
it would be difficult to show a pronounced effect."

But Malcolm Young, executive director of The Sentencing Project, which
advocates alternatives to prisons for less serious offenders, concedes the
increasing inmate population has contributed to the drop in crime in the
United States in recent years.

"The fairest statement is that some por-tion of the decrease in crime can
be attributed to increases in incarceration," said Young.

"We've had 30 years of increasing rates of incarceration. For the first
two decades, in round numbers, crime went up and then down again, but
overall up. But, since 1992-93, crime rates have been falling [and]
incarceration rates have continued to go up."

"Crime rates are now down to a low that brings us close to where we were in
the 1960s, when we embarked on the prison-building polices that left us
with too many people in jails and prisons," said Young.

According to the U.S. Department of Justice, in 2003, 15 percent of
U.S. households were victimized by violent crime or thefts compared with
25 percent in 1994.

Young contends effective drug treatment would work better than prison to
reduce crime caused by low-level drug offenders. He also said many of the
at least 250,000 mentally ill people in jails and prisons would not be
there if adequate treatment and services had been available for them on the
outside.

Eric Lotke of the Justice Policy Institute believes that perhaps 15 percent
of the decline in crime in the 1990s is the result of higher prison
populations.

He said most of the decline in crime was the result of a good economy and
changing demographics -- the baby boomers got older and were less likely to
commit crime.

Virginia ended parole and lengthened sentences for repeat and violent
offenders for crimes committed on or after Jan. 1, 1994.

Richard P. Kern, executive director of the Virginia Criminal Sentencing
Commission, said he could not say how much crime may have been prevented by
the sweeping changes in Virginia's sentencing laws 10 years ago.

"All we know is we have shortened a lot of criminal careers," said Kern.

A small minority of criminals are responsible for a large percentage of
crime, said Kern. The trick, he said, is to identify and imprison them for
at least the crime-prone years of ages 15 to 24.

"This is why laws such as three-strikes-you're-out in California make no
sense at all, because by the time they kick in, many of those guys, their
criminal careers are over," said Kern.

In 2003, the most recent year for which figures are available, 28 percent,
or 3,093, of those entering Virginia prisons were sentenced because of
violent-crime convictions. In 1996, 24 percent, 2,044, were violent
offenders.

Kern said those figures are misleading.

He said that while many criminals are entering prisons for drug offenses
for example, a substantial number of them have violent crimes, such as
robbery, in their backgrounds. And violent offenders, while a minority of
new admissions, remain in prison longer so they "back up" in the system.

In 1994, 58 percent of Virginia's prison population had committed at least
one violent crime. Today, Kern said, 68 percent of Virginia's prison
inmates have committed at least one violent crime.

Kern also said a major factor contributing to prison growth has been an
increasing number of so-called "technical violators" being sent to prison
for violating probation or parole rules and not for new criminal convictions.

He said some 1,500 to 1,700 such offenders -- enough to fill two prisons --
are being sent to state prisons each year, and they remain for an average
term of almost two years.

By 2002, nearly one in three prison admissions across the country were the
result of probation or parole rules violations, according to U.S. Justice
Department figures.

In Virginia, roughly one in six prison admissions in 2002 were so-called
"technical violators." As of the middle of 2003, an estimated 3,000
technical violators were in state prisons.

Kern and other state officials believe that, as a group, they are a
relatively low threat to public safety. Other experts disagree. They urge
caution when it comes to using alternatives to prison for technical
violators. They say many have violent backgrounds and belong behind bars
and the threat of prison is needed to keep the others in line.

Michael Jacobson, a criminologist, said he does not believe there is a
direct cause and effect between incarceration and crime rates.

"While it is true that in the last decade prison populations have been
rising and crime has been declining, the relationship between the two is
quite complicated for a number of reasons," he said.

The growth in Virginia prisons has come at a hefty price. The Virginia
Department of Correction's budget for the year ending June 30, 2004, was
$791,598,865. In the year that ended June 30, 1994, its budget was
$425,377,501.

The state and nation's local jail populations -- jails primarily hold
people awaiting trail or those serving shorter sentences for relatively
minor crimes -- are also increasing.

As of March 15, there were 24,097 people in Virginia jails. in contrast,
the country's largest single jail jurisdiction, Los Angeles County, Calif.,
held 18,600 inmates in 2004. Nationally there were more than 700,000
people in jails.