U.S. ANTI-DRUG PROPOSAL COULD HEIGHTEN VIOLENCE IN MEXICO

After Record Year of Killings, Cartels May Have Violent Answer to Plan
for $500 Million in U.S. Anti-Drug Aid

WASHINGTON - Mexico recorded its deadliest year yet of drug-related
killings in 2007, and the violence is expected to increase if an
initial $500 million U.S. aid package to Mexico is approved by
Congress in 2008, U.S. and Mexican officials and analysts say.

Drug-related killings surpassed 2,500 in 2007, eclipsing 2006's figure
of more than 2,100, according to the Austin-based Stratfor consulting
firm.

The killings underscore the timing of the Merida Initiative, an
anti-drug agreement forged by Presidents Bush and Felipe Calderon and
representing a new strategy of "shared responsibility," U.S. and
Mexican officials said in interviews. Much of the aid would be used
for helicopters, technology and information sharing.

But U.S. law enforcement officials and analysts caution that even with
the unprecedented level of anti-drug aid to Mexico, violence could
actually rise as drug cartels respond forcefully to increased U.S. and
Mexican pressure.

One U.S. law enforcement official, speaking on condition of anonymity,
warned that 2008 "may prove to be even deadlier. We expect drug
traffickers to respond aggressively to combined U.S. and Mexican
actions and pressure."

Growing U.S.-Mexico cooperation will force "drug cartels to increase
the political ante by increasing the level of violence," said Armand
Peschard-Sverdrup, a political consultant with Washington-based
Peschard-Sverdrup & Associates.

Especially vulnerable are Mexican law enforcement agents, said U.S.
and Mexican officials. Over the weekend, gunmen ambushed a convoy
transporting three alleged kidnappers and killed seven police officers
near Zacatecas. Hours earlier, a top law enforcement official was
killed in the state of Tamaulipas, which borders Texas.

"When pressure on them [drug traffickers] increases or continues from
law enforcement officials, the usual response is to kick up the
violence, especially directed at government and law enforcement
officials, which might explain why deaths of law enforcement officials
are up," said a senior U.S. official, also speaking on condition of
anonymity. "Per the longer term, you certainly expect violence to
decrease as the power of the cartels is broken, but not necessarily in
the short term."

Cocaine Seizures

Mexican authorities have made record cocaine seizures in recent
months, including hauls of 10 tons and 26 tons in October alone.

A strong government represents a threat to the cartels.

"The goal of the cartels is to weaken institutions [and] to go about
their illegal activities," said Roberta Jacobson, deputy assistant
secretary of state for Western Hemisphere affairs. "Therefore, our
goal is to strengthen these institutions."

She added: "Through this request by the Mexican government and
cooperation of the U.S. government, we will be able to work together
in such a way that criminals can't exploit our differences. This is an
initiative of shared responsibility for shared problems."

The Merida Initiative calls for $1.4 billion in U.S. assistance over
three years, mostly in new equipment and services to fortify
democratic institutions, with $500 million for Mexico and an
additional $50 million for Central American countries in fiscal 2008.
The aid package needs congressional approval in both countries.

Mexican Ambassador Arturo Sarukhan said the enhanced U.S. role is
key.

"Between Texas and Arizona alone, you've got 12,000 gun shops along
that border with Mexico. And a lot of these gun shops provide weapons
that feed into organized crime in Mexico, so we really need the
support of the Unites States," he said.

The cartels are also attacking new targets: the armed forces,
mainstream musicians - including three killed in December - and even
the Catholic Church.

In mid-December, two masked men burst into the offices of the Saltillo
diocese in Coahuila state, northern Mexico, destroying property and
holding a female employee, according to news reports. The attack came
after Bishop Raul Vera denounced the government's efforts against drug
traffickers as a farce.

Soldiers Slain

As the year ended, three soldiers were shot to death in a shopping
mall in the northern city of Torreon, Coahuila. That state also
borders Texas.

Three journalists were killed in 2007, down from nine in 2006, when
Mexico was the most dangerous place in the Americas for journalists,
according to the New York-based Committee to Protect
Journalists.

The debate in Congress might mirror the intensity of the immigration
debate last summer.

"Mexico won't get a free pass," one Republican congressional aide
said. "Expect the knives to come out for this one."

A proposed U.S. trip by Mr. Calderon in early 2008 to cities with
large immigrant populations may inflame anti-Mexico sentiment on cable
television and in Congress, said U.S. Rep. Silvestre Reyes, D-El Paso,
chairman of the House Intelligence Committee.

"If I had my druthers, I would tell him to wait until this thing is
over," said Mr. Reyes. "A visit by President Calderon could hurt our
effort."

Intense Lobbying

A final vote is expected in late February or early spring. Intense
lobbying is under way, an effort that includes Mr. Sarukhan making
about 15 visits a week to House and Senate leaders. "I believe that
the chances of passing it are quite good," he said. Such lobbying is
uncharacteristic for a nation with a historic fear of undermining its
sovereignty by accepting U.S. aid.

"This package goes against the golden rule of Mexican diplomacy: no
handouts from the U.S. government," said Rafael Fernandez de Castro, a
Mexican political analyst and visiting professor at Harvard
University. "In Mexico, there's always the fear that the U.S. Congress
will find a way to meddle into Mexican affairs and in its sovereignty.
But this is basically the last call for Mexico. The choices are limited."

While the proposed aid would be a big increase from the $40 million a
year received in the past, it is also a fraction of the billions of
dollars Mexico spends every year on law enforcement, much of it in the
drug fight.

Symbolic Shift

But the Merida Initiative is as much about a symbolic shift toward
co-responsibility in the drug war as it is about money, officials and
analysts said.

"President Calderon is leading a frontal attack on crime, and ... the
results are very striking in one year in Mexico," said Ms. Jacobson of
the State Department. "This is for us one of those situations where it
doesn't matter what the domestic political situation may be in the
U.S., the opportunity cannot be lost. It's simply an opportunity that
won't present itself again to change the relationship."

Still, Arturo Yanez, who trains detectives for the Mexico City
government and has worked in federal law enforcement, questioned
whether Mr. Calderon's counter-narcotics strategy is really working.

"Where are the results, the numbers ... ? Information is thin," he
said. The influence of organized crime "is growing across Mexico. How
exactly are we winning?"

Alfredo Corchado reported from Washington and Mexico City, Tim
Connolly reported from Washington, and staff writer Laurence Iliff
contributed from Mexico City.