INFLUX OF U.S. INMATES SLOWING, CENSUS SAYS

Number Incarcerated Still a Record High; Sentencing in '90s Cited As Factor

After two decades of massive growth, the U.S. prison population began
to level off in the first six years of this century, according to
2006 census statistics released today.

At nearly 2.1 million, the number of adults in correctional
institutions remains at an all-time high. Still, that figure
represents a 4 percent rise since 2000 -- nowhere near the 77 percent
spike in the prison population from 1990 to 2000.

The data, from the yearly American Community Survey, represent the
Census Bureau's first in-depth look at people in prisons since the
1980 Census. Although the numbers vary, the census findings generally
track with trends in twice-yearly statistics compiled by the Justice
Department.

Many analysts point to crack cocaine in the 1980s as a catalyst for
the subsequent boom in incarceration rates. Attracted by the drug's
low price, dealers in impoverished urban neighborhoods began selling
it in open-air markets, where they and their customers were targets
for arrest. Thirst for the drug also fueled other crimes by addicts.

Perhaps the most significant factor, however, was the introduction of
tough sentencing laws in the 1990s.

Congress dramatically increased prison time for offenses involving
crack cocaine compared with those involving powdered cocaine. The
federal government also introduced guidelines limiting judges'
discretion at sentencing, as well as rules that drastically curtailed
states' ability to parole offenders convicted of violent crimes. Many
states also passed mandatory minimum-sentencing laws.

The result was an explosion in the prison population even as crime
rates began to drop.

"The growth wasn't really about increasing crime but how we chose to
respond to crime," said Allen J. Beck, deputy director of the Bureau
of Justice Statistics. "When you increase the likelihood of a person
going to prison for a conviction, and then you increase how long you
keep them there, it has a profound effect."

Despite pending court challenges, most of those laws remain on the
books. There are indications that the impact may be increasingly on
women -- whose rate of violent crime has increased, and who often are
arrested for low-level participation in drug conspiracies led by
boyfriends or male relatives. In 1990, 8 percent of the prison
population was female. By 2000, women were 9 percent of the
population, and in 2006, 10 percent.

Still, the overall growth of the prison population has slowed
substantially compared with the 1990s. Researchers point to a variety
of reasons. First is the precipitous drop in crime rates since the
late 1990s, possibly because of the declining popularity of crack
cocaine, the introduction of innovative policing strategies and many
would-be offenders already being behind bars.

Perhaps as important, many felons locked up in the 1990s are
completing their sentences.

"All those people who were in prison are starting to come out. . . .
So the number that is going in is approaching the number going out,"
said Christy Visher, primary research associate with the Urban
Institute's Justice Policy Center.

Indeed, said Visher, the prison population might even start to
decline if it weren't for the high recidivism rate of those released:
About half return to prison within three years.

And with a recent uptick in the crime rate, and increasing numbers of
offenders being placed on probation, Beck said that the prison
population may begin to significantly increase again.

Even if the prison population remains at its current level, the
social and economic costs to the nation are enormous, Visher said.

She noted that the federal government and states are spending more
than $65 billion per year on corrections alone. "We need to have a
national conversation about how to transition this population into
being productive," Visher said.

Just as worrisome is the persistent overrepresentation of blacks in
prison. In 2006, blacks accounted for 12 percent of the general
population but 40 percent of those in adult correctional institutions.

Hispanics are also overrepresented, but to a lesser extent. They made
up 15 percent of the general population and 19 percent of the prison
population.

By contrast, immigrants are underrepresented. Foreign-born inmates
accounted for 9 percent of those incarcerated, compared with 13
percent of the total population.