MORE SLAYINGS: WHY?

A Range Of Theories, And None Add Up

Longest summer?

Charlotte-Mecklenburg Schools' students enjoyed a longer summer this year
after the state legislature pushed back school start dates. Kids needed
things to do. That stressed parents and pocketbooks.Could that have added
deadly family strain? Could idle kids have caused more trouble?

Experts say summer vacation can't explain away the homicide spike. Police
already saw a more than 50 percent jump by the end of March while school
was still in session. The victims and suspects from this summer's slayings
aren't disproportionately school-age.

Violent Crime force's demise?

A joint program among Charlotte-Mecklenburg police and federal agencies
such as the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives, the Secret
Service and U.S. Marshals Service ended in April after more than a decade.

The team used to take guns off the streets and systematically break up
crime rings, from the leaders to the lowest low-lifes. By disbanding, did
they trigger more violence?

Gastonia Police Chief Terry Sult, a former task force leader when he worked
for Charlotte-Mecklenburg police, said it's too early to see whether the
demise has had any impact. With cases lasting six months to two years, he
said, investigators still have full caseloads.

And they now work together in new capacities, he said.

"To say that this change had an impact on crime this year is a stretch at
best," Sult said.

The war in Iraq?

Paul Friday, a UNC Charlotte criminal justice professor, wonders if the
overseas war might be leaving a mark stateside.The U.S. is resolving
conflict with violence, he said, so what's to stop others from applying the
lesson in their own lives?

"We create violent people by not legitimating the resolution of conflicts
without violence," he said.

But Jack Riley, a Pittsburgh-based crime expert with the RAND Corp. says:
"If that's true, you'd probably see it at the national level."

And Charlotte's 2004 homicide rate dropped even after American troops had
fought in Iraq for more than a year.

Economic woes?

Many people blamed the economy, in part, for the crime ravages of the early
1990s.

But can that hold true now? Has the local economy changed dramatically
since 2004 ?

Unemployment rates in the region aren't much different from this year to
last year.

Emergency room care?

Carolinas Medical Center is the most frequent destination for the city's
gunshot or stabbing victims.Hospital emergency rooms often can make the
difference between an assault and a murder.

Has the hospital changed anything this year? No, says hospital spokeswoman
Nancy Ryan, the emergency department is running the same as it has in the past.

Friday, the UNCC professor, especially credits CMC's staff for keeping the
homicide rate as low as it is.

New drugs, new crime?

For years cocaine and marijuana dominated the area's illegal drug markets.
But methamphetamine has crept from the West Coast to the N.C. mountains and
slowly into Mecklenburg County.

Could the new drug be destabilizing local drug markets?

Meth doesn't generally lead to the deadly violence associated with crack,
said Riley, the RAND expert. Meth users experience a longer high than crack
users, he said, so their crime patterns look more like those of heroin
users. They have more time to plan both their next high and the crimes to
pay for it.

So instead of holding up a convenience store for quick cash, he said, meth
junkies may break into a business when nobody's there, then hock the stolen
goods for cash. That can mean less chance of mistakes leading to murders.